Role reversal: how foot-dragging France blindsided newly assertive Berlin

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1. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was making one last push to persuade EU leaders to use €210bn in frozen Russian sovereign assets to help Ukraine when he realised he lacked a critical ally: Emmanuel Macron.

   In the weeks leading up to Thursday’s summit in Brussels, the French president did not publicly oppose the German proposal. As more countries, including Italy, sided with Belgium, where the bulk of the Russian assets are located and whose government opposed the plan from the outset, Macron joined in, killing the idea.

   “Macron betrayed Merz, and he knows that there will be a price to pay for that,” said a senior EU diplomat with direct knowledge of Thursday’s talks. “But he’s so weak that he had no other choice but to fold in behind Giorgia Meloni.”

   The stand-off underscores a new dynamic between Europe’s two largest powers: an initiative-driven Germany and a foot-dragging France. A newfound assertiveness has taken hold in Berlin after Merz came to power in May — unlocking up to €1tn in defence and infrastructure spending for the next decade — but Paris has become hamstrung by high public debt and political instability in the second half of Macron’s final term in office.

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3. France historically foot-dragged on EU defense/security while Germany was aggressive post-Ukraine. Now reversing: Germany cautious on Ukraine escalation (Scholz refuses Taurus missiles), France pushing harder military support (Macron deployed troops). Reflects domestic politics—Germany has pacifist left + AfD pushing peace with Russia, France has hawkish establishment. Long-term: European defense policy paralyzed by competing national interests. No unified response emerges.

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