Croatia’s economy is expected to grow by around 3% in real terms this year, before slowing to 2.8% in 2026, according to the latest forecasts published by the Croatian National Bank (HNB).
Inflation, measured by the national consumer price index, is forecast to ease from 3.7% this year to 3.1% next year, the central bank said at its annual media briefing on Monday.
The updated projections represent a slight downward revision to economic growth and an upward adjustment to inflation compared with HNB’s previous estimates published in September. At that time, GDP growth for 2025 was projected at 3.2%, with inflation expected to be lower.
According to the new forecast, inflation measured by the EU’s harmonised index (HICP) is expected to reach 4.4% in 2025, before slowing to 3.4% in 2026.
HNB noted that while domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth, the pace of expansion is likely to ease due to slower wage growth and a less supportive fiscal policy. As a result, the contribution of personal consumption, government spending and investment is expected to be lower than in the past two years.
Inflation pressures in 2025 are expected to be driven mainly by higher energy and food prices, with energy costs in 2026 influenced by increases in regulated gas, electricity and heating prices. However, slower growth in food prices and core inflation could help moderate overall inflation next year.