With the end of 2025 fast approaching, the number of births in Estonia this year is likely to hit another all-time low. According to sociology professor Mare Ainsaar, the main cause is the unstable situation both in Estonia and the world more broadly.

The year is not yet over, and Statistics Estonia will publish its official data on population changes during 2025 in mid-January. However, the number of births in Estonia declined last year, and it appears that the trend is set to continue. Preliminary data reveals that in the first 11 months of the year, there were 5 percent fewer births in Estonia than at the same point in 2024.

In November, 721 children were born in Estonia, meaning a total of 8,442 children were born in the first 11 months of the year. In 2024, there were a total of 9,690 births for the whole year. However, when compared to 2010, the number of births has decreased by 42 percent.

“The birth rate has been declining for 15 years. And this will not be reversed in one, two or even three years. However, we can prevent the situation from becoming more complicated in the future. If the birth rate returns to 13,000 in the coming years, it would be a significant step towards a slightly better future,” said Lenno Uusküla, chief economist at Luminor Bank.

Professor of Sociology at the University of Tartu Mare Ainsaar believes uncertainty, both globally and in Estonia, is the main reason for the declining birthrate.

“The bigger question is the larger demographic gap in Estonia’s population pyramid. Is it possible to fill it? That is somewhat more complicated. Because our own parents’ generations will also be smaller in the future, and filling this large gap would require more children. Compensating for this is a very difficult task,” said Ainsaar.

According to Uusküla, the low birth rate not only affects the number of children in Estonia’s kindergartens and schools but will also leave a large gap in the labor market in the future.

“Less labor means that the ratio of workers to pensioners will get worse. People who work and can provide the services that everyone needs – we are talking about health and social care but also pensions – they are the ones who will pay for these pensions,” said Uusküla.

Uusküla added that the government could contribute to increasing the birthrate by providing stability and predictability in terms of both taxes and benefits. The private sector, on the other hand, could also offer parents more flexible working conditions.

—

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!