On December 13th, Belarus released 123 political prisoners after the U.S. lifted sanctions on the country. Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski and prominent opposition activist Maria Kolesnikova were amongst the released prisoners. The U.S. lifted sanctions on potash, a key component in fertilizers, as well as one of Belarus’ largest exports. Ultimately, this is a step towards normalizing relations between the U.S. and Belarus, a country steeply entwined with Russia.
John Coale, the U.S. special envoy to Belarus, announced the lifting of the potash sanctions after two days of meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. The U.S.’ goal, as U.S. officials told Reuters, is “that engaging with Lukashenko is part of an effort to peel him away from Putin’s influence, at least to a degree.” This approach represents a big switch from the heavy sanctions placed on Belarus in 2020, with the disputed election of Lukashenko and his political repression of opposition groups; later tightened in 2022,with Belarus’ assistance of Russian troops at the beginning of the Ukraine war.
This comes in distinct opposition to what the E.U. approach has been and continues to be: according to Bloomberg, E.U. leaders and “Lithuanian leaders have repeatedly said that the Belarusian leader is not an independent actor and seeks approval from Putin before taking any steps on reengaging with the West.” E.U. sanctions have remained, and may potentially tighten as a result of Belarusian weather balloons wandering into Lithuania’s airspace. Russia’s position on the lifted sanctions is still unclear. The exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has said in response to critics from the E.U.: “U.S. sanctions are about people. E.U. systems are about systemic change — stopping the war; enabling democratic transition, and ensuring accountability. These approaches do not contradict each other; they complement each other.”
Ultimately, this was a strong diplomatic move by the U.S.: by lifting sanctions, the U.S. simultaneously raises Belarus’ economic dependence on the U.S., and creates a space for dialogue for the potential release of other political prisoners in the future. Freed political prisoners, like Ales Bialiatski, are now able to continue advocacy work; both for human rights and against the Lukashenko regime. This advocacy could lead to further pressure from the E.U. for systemic change, bringing about a more stable Belarus. Although it’s difficult to say exactly how deeply connected Lukashenko and Putin are, regardless, the peaceful release of political prisoners is overall a strong step towards bringing peace to Belarus.