Putin says Russia will achieve its Ukraine aims by force if Kyiv doesn’t want peace

3 comments

1. You’ll know it’s time for peace when Europe and Zelensky drop the “just and lasting” caveat from their peace demands, since “justice” to them always ends up being the demands of a victor and as such a complete nonstarter for negotiations.

   Unfortunately, Zelensky lacks foresight so I predict that won’t happen until the AFU is completely shattered, at which point I’m not sure there will be a deal to be had. It makes more sense for Russia to end Ukraine at that point so there’s no further squawking about reparations and ongoing sanctions. Or regime change it and put in a puppet to sign over everything Russia wants while maintaining the rest as an “independent” client state that absolves Russia for global optics.

2. Country at war adopts maximalist position. More news at 11

   We will probably just end up with some form of “freeze the frontlines” deal regardless of posturing by either side, along with some weird security architecture that let’s both sides claim they got what they wanted (I’m guessing some sort of a security guarantee for Ukraine without actual NATO troops on the ground)

   I think we will probably get to a peace deal in 2026, or if not the war will grind down to an extremely slow semi frozen conflict. Both sides are simply hurting too badly to continue indefinitely

3. If they get any sort of peace Russia will do what worked for it last time.

   Rebuild, pick a target, invade, sue for peace, rebuild, pick a target, invade…

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