Kpler termed December 2025 crude oil imports at their lowest level since December 2022, pointing to a temporary shift in procurement among key Indian refiners.
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TATIANA MEEL
India’s crude oil imports from Russia are expected to decline by 35-40 per cent month-on-month in December after shipments rose to a monthly record in November, with refiners topping up supplies before the US sanctions deadline. However, purchases slipped to their lowest levels in last three years.
Global real time data and analytics provide Kpler expects Russian crude oil imports to India to retreat sharply in December, with volumes likely declining to around 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 25 per cent of India’s total Imports (as of December 30, 2025), against 1.84 mb/d in November 2025
Considering crude oil tankers from Russia (Baltic/ Black Sea ports) to India take roughly 30-40 days, domestic refiners booked higher cargoes in anticipation of the sanctions deadline. Washington’s sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil — first serious attempt to check energy trade between New Delhi and Moscow — kicked-in on November 21.
Demand dip
Kpler termed December 2025 crude oil imports at their lowest level since December 2022, pointing to a temporary shift in procurement among key Indian refiners.
“The decline is largely driven by reduced intake from major buyers, particularly Reliance Industries (RIL) and the New Mangalore refinery, both of which have significantly scaled back Russian crude purchases during the month,” it added.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline, “This appears to be a near-term adjustment, with Russian crude imports into India expected to recover gradually from January as new intermediaries step in and supply chains re-establish.”
However, December’s decline only reveals part of the story as Russian crude flows into India are increasingly being rerouted through a growing web of intermediaries, traders, and logistical workarounds, he explained.
While direct purchases have softened, the underlying demand signal remains intact, and Russian barrels are expected to retain a structural presence in India’s crude slate given pricing economics, refinery compatibility, and limited near-term alternatives, he added.
“As alternative sellers such as Tatneft, Rusexport, Morexport, and Alghaf Marine expand their trading footprint and take over the commercial role previously played by Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s exports should largely re-normalise, with volumes gradually re-appearing through these new channels. The structure will become more intermediated, but the barrels will still find their way to market,” Ritolia explained.
Crude loadings down
Russian crude loadings bound for India have also declined, to around 1.27 mb/d from roughly 1.44 mb/d in November.
However, these remain subject to change as several vessels are currently heading toward Asia without a declared final destination — often a signal of potential Suez Canal transit. Historically, such cargoes update discharge destinations mid-voyage, and India has frequently emerged as the end buyer, he added.
Published on December 30, 2025