Based on reports from doctors participating in the surveillance service, 250,500 people visited a doctor with symptoms of an acute respiratory infection during the 51st week of 2025 (22–28 December), representing a mere 0.3% increase compared to the 50th week. Of these, 46,300 had influenza-like symptoms, representing a 20.2% jump on the previous week. Since 2011, the number of people with influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100,000 people has never been higher than currently. About a week ago, the national chief medical officer has suggested that the emergence of a new type of influenza A virus may also have contributed to the season starting earlier than usual.

As regards the estimated number of Hungarians seeking medical help with acute respiraotry infection, the current respiratory season started worse than in the previous years. The ARI numbers have been lower than in the previous three years for five consecutive weeks, but the 49th week brought a change, an dby the 51st week the number of ARI reports was higher than on the same week of the previous three seasons.

The number of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is also the highest compared to the past three years. The comparability of the end-year data is difficult due to the holiday season and the fact that there are even gaps in the NNGYK reports.

The share of ILI in ARI was 18.4%, higher than in the previous three years, having risen for the fifth week in a row.

With regard to the number of ARI patients per 100,000 inhabitants, we are currently worse off than in any year since 2011/2012.

The Chief Medical Officer emphasised about a week ago that the new type of influenza A virus had also been identified in Hungary. This may explain why the number of cases exceeded the epidemic threshold so early this year, in December. This level is typically only reached in January.

Based on the available data, it appears that the new virus strain does not cause more severe illness than previous strains. hospitalisation data, however, are a red flag in this respect.

While the total number of samples tested exceeds the 2022/23 figure by the 50th week, it remains below the 2023/24 and 2024/25 figures.

Positivity rates

The coronavirus positivity rate dropped further to 13%, which compares with just 6% a year ago, 40.7% two years ago and 17.5% three years ago.

The influenza positivity rate picked up further to 23.4%, as expected. It compares with 26.3% a year ago, 6.2% two years ago and 19.2% three years ago.

The first time samples showed the presence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was on the 46th week and although the positivity rate remains low, it’s worth pointing out that it peaked around 24% at the end of 2022, early 2023. However, the patterns of the last three seasons have provided very little useful information for making forecasts. Going out on a limb, based on the number of infections so far we should expect the RSV positivity rate to remain under 15%. The average of the past three seasons is 4.9%.

Hospitalisations

There were 167 people in hospital with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), up from 117 a week ago and also a record high this year, of whom 15 tested positive for COVID-19 (9.1%), which compares with 11.2% in 2024/25 and 69.1% in 2023/24, when hospitals admitted more SARI patients on the 51st week, 143 and 243, respectively.

Ten of the 167 patients needed intensive of subintensive care, a ratio of 6%, down from 12% a week ago. There were 16 SARI patients in ICU on the same week a year ago (11.2%) and 31 two years ago (12.8%).

About 47% of people admitted to hospital with a coronavirus infection were over 60 years old (7 in total), and more than 40% of SARI patients were in this age group (67 in total). However, more than a quarter (26.3% of SARI patients were under two years old (44 in total).

The National Centre for Public Health and Pharmacy (NNGYK) also had some key data published since the official end of the previous respiratory season on the 20th week, which show a general increase in the number of hospitalsed SARI patients since the 35th week, except for a surprise drop on the 42nd and 45th week.

For the first time this season, we also find that influenza is responsible for more hospitalisations than covid-19 (32.3% versus 9.0%, see detailed chart below).

Up to the 51st week, this season was less serious than the previous ones when it comes to how many of all people with ARI end up in hospital. However, a sharp increase can be observed on the 51st week.

The patterns of the previous years suggest that the ratio of coronavirus infections in hospitalisations should keep dropping and get close to 0-10% by the 5th or 6th week of next year. In parallel with this, the proportion of influenza infections behind hospitalisations has started to pick up already as expected. And then there’s the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to consider.

This is how the pathogens ‘swapped places’ as the main reason behind hospitalisations last year, although there’s absolutely no guarantee that we’ll see the same trajectories this year.

Here is a side-by-side comparison of hospitalisations by type of infection for the current and past respiratory infection seasons. Although we have chosen not to plot it on this particular chart, note that the share of coronavirus infection behind hospitalisations hovered between 65% and 74% in the first 12 weeks of the 2023/24 season.

And this is how they have been changed in the current and past three seasons of respiratory infections. (Note that the the RSV was not reported to be behind any hospitalisation until the 47th week in 2024 and the 49th week in 2023.)

Chief Medical Officer Orsolya Surján stressed two weeks ago that the current epidemic situation does not necessitate the introduction of centralised, uniform measures. County government offices are authorised to decide on the epidemiological precautions necessary for healthcare institutions. The CMO believes that the holidays and school breaks may have a positive effect on the development of the epidemic and hopes that the wave of infection will be broken.

Note that this relief will be both temporary and deceptive. The number of infections will not actually decrease; it will only seem to do so because fewer people will seek medical help. Respiratory infection season tends to peak between the third and eighth weeks of the new year, so a drop in infections could be expected in early March at the earliest.

Age breakdown

46% of people seeking medical help with an acute respiratory infection (ARI) in week 51 were children aged up to 14 (more than 115,000), down from around 120,350 a week earlier. More than a quarter (cc 66,000) were aged 15–34.

The graphs below show a breakdown of ARI patients by age group for this year and the previous two seasons.

When it comes to ILI, the most affected age group for the second week in a row was children aged 0-14, accounting for 16,600 (36.1%) of all patients with influenza-like illness, followed by the 15-34 age group (15,300 or 33.2%).

Looking at last year’s pattern we would not be surprised if the percentage of ILI remained the highest among children throughout the season from now on.

Hepatitis A continues to spread

Meanwhile, the number of hepatitis A (HAV) infections rose by 66 to 1,978 on the 50th week of the year, by far the highest figure since 2017 (as far as available data go back).

The Epidemiology and Surveillance Centre, which is part of Semmelweis University, has recently pointed out that the number of HAV cases reported in Hungary significantly exceeded the five-year median value from week 48 of 2024 onwards. There was a temporary decline from mid-April to early July 2025, presumably corresponding to the seasonal low point of the disease in spring and early summer. However,

a continuous increase has been observed since the second half of the summer, which coincides with the usual peak of the disease in late summer and autumn.

According to experts at the centre, the seasonal pattern is the same as in previous endemic years, confirming that common transmission factors (e.g. food) do not determine the spread of the virus, which is driven by direct or indirect human contact. This is also supported by the ECDC report of 28 November.

However, according to the Surveillance Centre’s Situation Assessment, time series regional data show that, as reported in the news, Budapest and Pest County were affected at the beginning of the year, while the spread of the virus accelerated in Borsod and Szabolcs counties in the second half of the year.

Despite the large population in Budapest and Pest County, measures were successful in slowing down the spread of the disease. However, in areas that had experienced endemic outbreaks in previous decades, such as Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg counties, where conditions are favourable for the disease to spread (e.g. low levels of drinking water and sewerage provision, poor hygiene practices, etc.), the disease spread more quickly in the second half of the year, in line with the usual seasonal pattern, as was also the case in previous years/decades.

In terms of specific figures, Budapest accounted for 733 or over 37% of all HAV cases up to the 50th week, followed by Borsod (286, 14.5%), Pest (254, 12.8%), Szabolcs (229, 11.6%), and Bács-Kiskun (100, 5.1%).

Read more about the findings in the report, as well as the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s (ECDC) recent HAV update here:

Cover image (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images