Japan bet on the wrong horse as China overtakes them in 2025 global car sales, 60% EV/PHEVs

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1. # Summary: Japan Bet on the Wrong Horse as China Overtakes Them in 2025 Global Car Sales, 60% EV/PHEVs

   Chinese automakers are set to surpass Japanese manufacturers in global vehicle sales for the first time in over two decades, selling approximately 27 million vehicles worldwide in 2025 compared to Japan’s just under 25 million. This historic shift marks the end of Japanese automotive dominance that has lasted more than 20 years.

   The transformation is driven by China’s aggressive pivot to new energy vehicles. Nearly 60% of passenger car sales in China are now battery-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the domestic market accounting for roughly 70% of Chinese automakers’ total sales. Chinese brands BYD and Geely have broken into the global top ten automakers, while Chery has emerged as one of China’s largest exporters.

   Chinese manufacturers are aggressively expanding overseas, with projected 2025 sales including 500,000 vehicles in Southeast Asia (traditionally Japanese territory), 2.3 million units in Europe despite tariffs, 230,000 in Africa (up 32% year-on-year), and 540,000 in Latin America (up 33%). Meanwhile, Japanese automakers—whose sales peaked at nearly 30 million vehicles in 2018—are experiencing declines in key markets including the United States, and have seen their market share erode in China itself.

   The contrast is stark: while China bet heavily on electrification and is reaping the rewards through domestic dominance and export growth, Japan’s slower transition to EVs has left its automakers struggling to maintain their historical market positions in an increasingly electrified global automotive landscape.

2. For Europe and the US…. seems to have been the right horse as everyone pulls back on their EV plans…

3. Japanese carmakers can suck a fat one

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