Vice President J.D. Vance’s chance of being voted in as the GOP presidential nominee for 2028 are looking particularly strong based on prediction market odds.
Discussing the prediction market odds on CNN at the end of December, journalist and polling analyst Harry Enten showed that Vance had a 48 percent chance of being the 2028 GOP presidential nominee, and that his nearest rival, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, had a 12 percent chance.
After Rubio, no other potential candidates had even a 5 percent chance of being the 2028 GOP presidential nominee.
Why It Matters
While there is still a year to go before the Republican primary kicks into gear, the prediction market odds highlight the growing sentiment that Vance is the closest heir to President Donald Trump—which was further cemented by Turning Point USA leaders’ recent declaration of support during AmericaFest.
Turning Point USA, a nonprofit organization founded by Charlie Kirk that advocates for conservative politics in schools, has a large Generation Z following, and Charlie Kirk Show executive producer Andrew Kolvet told America’s Newsroom that “we’re all in behind Vice President J.D. Vance.”
What To Know
Enten also noted on CNN that an early New Hampshire primary poll showed Vance had 51 percent of the votes, while his nearest rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, had 9 percent, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard had 8 percent.
This finding is also particularly notable as Vance is the first non-sitting president running for GOP presidential nominee to receive 50 percent or higher in the New Hampshire early primary polls since at least 1980.
Another early poll by Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) in September 2025 showed that Vance had 56 percent of support in the state.
“If you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are you’re going to be the Republican nominee for president,” Enten said.
“J.D. Vance is pulling off something historic at this time,” he added. “And that is the key reason why at this point he is the far and away favorite for the Republican nomination, he’s just way out ahead of the pack.”
While Vance is certainly storming ahead in early polls, there is still everything to play for as the primaries are around a year away.
Rubio is still seen as a rival to Vance when it comes to the GOP nomination, however he has said that if Vance enters the race he would rule out entering himself. He said to Vanity Fair: “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”
That said, there is still want insiders have called a “proxy war” between the ‘Make America Great Again’ activist base and the camp of Rubio and Trump’s chief of staff Susie Wiles.
Also, no Republican vice president has become the party’s presidential nominee in the 21st century, as former Vice President Dick Cheney decided not to run and Mike Pence’s campaign in 2024 only lasted for a few months.
George H. W. Bush was the last Republican vice president to become the presidential nominee.
What People Are Saying
CNN polling analyst Harry Enten wrote in a post on X: “JD Vance is like Mario Andretti & the rest of the GOP is going around in go karts when it comes to 2028.”
What Happens Next
Major candidates’ 2028 campaigns are not expected to be announced until after the 2026 midterm election cycle.