Trump also warned he would support protesters in Iran if Iranian forces fired on them, as unrest in recent days posed one of the most serious internal challenges to Iran’s authorities in years.
Despite such risks, analysts said the market response remained muted. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said oil prices appear locked within a long-term trading range, with a prevailing view that supply will remain adequate regardless of developments.
In the Middle East, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—both major OPEC producers—linked to Yemen escalated after flights were suspended at Aden airport on Thursday.
OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Sunday, January 4. June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities, said most traders expect the group will continue to delay planned production increases in the first quarter.
She said 2026 will be an important year for assessing OPEC+ decisions in balancing supply. She added that China is expected to continue building crude oil reserves in the first half of the year, which could help support prices.
Brent and WTI fell nearly 20% in 2025, marking the biggest annual decline since 2020. It was also the third consecutive year of losses for Brent, described as the longest such stretch on record.
Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, said the relatively small price moves reflect a tug-of-war between near-term geopolitical risks and longer-term fundamentals pointing towards an oversupplied market.