On October 28, Jamaica was struck by a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) – the massive Category 5 Hurricane Melissa.

Unlike the atom bombs detonated on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, in 1945, Melissa’s destructive force was not constrained to the single point of impact. In less than 12 hours, it ripped across a wide swathe of south and southwestern Jamaica, taking lives; destroying infrastructure; devastating native forests, tree crops, agriculture, and livestock; eroding marine and shoreline protection, including coral reefs and seagrass; and wiping out centuries of cultural history.

Hurricane Melissa, the second strongest storm on record and the strongest to develop in October, was not a natural phenomenon. It was not an act of God. The scientists tell us it was significantly man-induced. Humans, through our fossil-fuel-driven production and transportation processes, consumption practices, waste, military enterprises, and wanton destruction of forest cover, have set in motion a pattern of warming that has changed and continues to change global temperatures rapidly and significantly.

The global community recognised this 53 years ago at the Conference on the Environment in Stockholm in 1972. It decided at the RIO Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992, inter alia, (i) what and who were mainly responsible; (ii) what needed to be done to contain and begin to reverse the destructive trend; and (iii) the financial provisions that had to be made, and by whom to (a) adapt to the changes already set in train, and (b) to mitigate the rate of change. Thirty years ago, in 1995, it established the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which allowed all countries in annual meetings of the Conference of the Parties (COP), to review the progress being made to contain and then begin to reduce the rate of man-induced warming of the global climate. The rate was then 0.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It also established a scientific body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to study and advise on the changes and trends in the behaviour of the global climate.

Between 1995 and 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published six comprehensive assessment reports (AR) reviewing the latest climate science. Each report found that emissions of greenhouse gases and global temperatures had increased and warned of catastrophic consequences. The Sixth Assessment (AR6) concluded that “it is only possible to avoid warming of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) or 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made”. What the AR6 Guardian described as “its starkest warning yet”, the major emitters have continued to ignore.

The 1.5 °C threshold was breached in 2024.

FAILED

The major emitters also failed to meet the financial commitments to the adaptation and mitigation funds. In relation to the provision of finance, a commitment made in 2009 in Copenhagen to provide US$100 billion per year and reiterated in 2015 has yet to be met in any year.

Hurricane Melissa was a textbook demonstration of a system fuelled by the increasing warming of the sea waters. The natural system that arose off the coast of Africa, as was usual at that time of the year, hovered for days south of Jamaica until the sea temperature had exceeded 1.4 °C. It then exploded, and within hours, devastated a waiting but surprised Jamaica.

Jamaica suffered a catastrophic accident caused by a reckless international community that knowingly refused to adjust the speed at which it was impacting the global climate.

On July 23, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, Netherlands, issued its advisory opinion “that states have an obligation to protect the environment from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions … includes the obligation… to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”. If states breach these obligations, they incur legal responsibility… and may be required to … make full reparation … .“

The ICJ’s Advisory Opinion flowed from a request by the small Pacific Island State of Vanuatu.

The fossil fuel-producing and consuming countries have not only breached their obligations but flouted the ICJ’s Opinion at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where they decided not to seek to “transition away from fossil fuels”, the main cause of global warming.

Two months after the devastation, Jamaica must now confront the unenviable task of rebuilding and redeveloping the affected areas. There are some fundamental challenges. We will discuss one issue here: financing.

The World Bank’s initial estimate set the physical loss at US$8.8 billion. With the obvious omissions, reconstruction that factors in building to standards that anticipate frequent WMDs of Hurricane Melissa’s strength or higher could exceed US$20 billion. Who bears that cost?

Will Jamaica pursue the legal opportunity provided by the ICJ’s Advisory Opinion for affected states to seek “full reparation” from the States that breached their obligations and incur legal responsibility for the destruction it suffered because of the massive Category 5 Hurricane Melissa? Or will Jamaica decide to bear the cost of financing, whether through international borrowing and internally generated resources, not as a short-term tactic but as its permanent strategy?

If Jamaica, with this incontrovertible case, decides on the latter course, without a challenge to the international system, it must be conscious that (1) it would have compromised every future case not only for Jamaica but for all SIDS; (2) with the past and current behaviour of the major emitters, WMDs of Melissa’s ferocity and stronger will arise much more frequently; and (3) insurance will become much more costly and less available.

Ambassador Byron Blake is former deputy permanent representative of Jamaica to the United Nations and former assistant secretary general of CARICOM. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.