Dr Annette Idler, associate professor in global security at the Blavatnik School of Government and director of the Global Security Programme at Pembroke College, University of Oxford, warned that recent US action in Venezuela – where Nicolás Maduro was captured – could have far-reaching regional and global impacts.
Mr Maduro, widely regarded as having ruled illegitimately after a disputed election, was detained following a surprise US military operation. In the aftermath, his former vice-president Delcy RodrÃguez assumed power in Caracas with the backing of the military and courts, side-lining the country’s democratic opposition.
Dr Idler said: “The key point is this: removing an illegitimate ruler does not automatically produce stability.
“Coercion without legitimacy is one of the fastest ways to turn a crisis into prolonged insecurity.
“Many Venezuelans want change but durable change requires legitimacy, restraint, and regional diplomacy, not domination dressed up as transition.”
She said Libya’s collapse into violence after the removal of Muammar Gaddafi remains a cautionary example of what can happen without a credible political process.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the action as a law-enforcement operation linked to drug trafficking, but mixed statements from officials have raised wider concerns.
Dr Idler noted that while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasised its limited scope, President Trump suggested that the US should ‘run’ Venezuela, citing the nation’s vast oil reserves.
The situation on the ground remains tense. Colombia has already deployed 30,000 troops to its border, following threats from President Trump directed at Colombian president Gustavo Petro.
Dr Idler said: “This matters because perception shapes behaviour: fear can fuel mobilisation, resistance, and alignment with external protectors.
“A full US occupation is unlikely but the risks are real.
“Armed militias, criminal networks and foreign armed groups such as the Colombian rebel group ELN already operate inside Venezuela and across its borders – and they do not answer to central authority.”
She stressed that such groups thrive in instability and disorder.
The US operation has also intensified global tensions. Countries including Brazil, Mexico, Spain, China, Iran, and Russia condemned the intervention, while others supported the removal of Mr Maduro.
Dr Idler said: “Beyond escalation, the deeper concern is precedent.
“President Trump is bypassing international law, treating sovereignty as optional and framing resource extraction as reimbursement.
“This echoes an old interventionist logic, where resource seizure is justified as compensation rather than governed by law.”
She warned that this approach could reshape international security norms well beyond Venezuela.