The upcoming Q4 2025 earnings announcement for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and fresh geopolitical shifts involving Venezuela have put the refiner back in focus for investors watching heavy crude exposure and Gulf Coast refining economics.

See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum.

Marathon Petroleum’s share price has eased back from recent highs to around US$176.17, with a 7 day share price return of 6.68% following the Venezuela developments. At the same time, a 1 year total shareholder return of 26.58% and a very large 5 year total shareholder return suggest longer term holders have already seen substantial gains. This may indicate that near term momentum is stabilising after a strong multi year run.

If you are looking beyond refiners while this earnings story unfolds, it could be worth scanning aerospace and defense stocks for other companies tied to energy security and global trade themes.

With Marathon Petroleum trading around US$176 and recent returns already very strong over 1 and 5 years, the key question now is simple: is there still mispricing here, or are markets already baking in the next leg of growth?

Against a last close of US$176.17, the most followed narrative points to a fair value a little above US$200, framing Marathon Petroleum as undervalued on discounted cash flows.

Disciplined capital allocation through continued share buybacks, increasing MPLX distributions, and maintenance of an investment-grade balance sheet are set to drive higher earnings per share and sustained shareholder returns, aligning with positive long-term company trends.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how an earnings climb, widening profit margins, and a richer future P/E all fit together into that higher fair value? The key assumptions pull in revenue trends, margin expansion, and shrinking share count in a way that is not immediately obvious from the current price. Want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up over the next few years?

Result: Fair Value of $200.11 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on refined product demand and carbon policy. Faster electrification or tougher environmental rules could pressure volumes, margins, and asset values.

Find out about the key risks to this Marathon Petroleum narrative.

If you think the crowd has this story wrong, or simply prefer to lean on your own reading of the numbers, you can spin up a tailored narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Marathon Petroleum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Marathon Petroleum might be on your radar, but you do not want to miss other potential opportunities that match your style while this story plays out.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MPC.

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