Borderlands Mexico is a weekly rundown of developments in the world of United States-Mexico cross-border trucking and trade. This week in Borderlands Mexico: Tariff noise to stay loud in 2026, Flexport warns importers; Echo Global Logistics launches EchoXBorder; and LS Cable & System USA opens logistics hub near Port Houston.
Global logistics provider Flexport expects trade policy volatility to persist in 2026, but warned importers not to equate aggressive tariff announcements with the actual duties they will pay.
During a recent “Tariff Trends 2026” webinar on Thursday, Flexport executives said the Trump administration has repeatedly paired headline-grabbing tariff proposals with delays, carve-outs and exemptions that soften their impact on consumer prices and supply chains.
“I think tariffs will continue, but I think … they’re going to be restrained compared to the rhetoric [from the Trump administration],” said Marcus Eeman, Flexport’s director of customs.
Flexport highlighted several 2025 examples where proposed tariff hikes were scaled back or paused, including delayed Section 232 increases on furniture, expanded exemptions under reciprocal tariffs, and sharp reductions in anti-dumping duties on Italian pasta.
Eeman said trade policy decisions increasingly reflect sensitivity around food, fuel, housing and healthcare — areas he described as political red lines for the administration.
“They don’t want to see a very common staple food in every household in America, all of a sudden having to go up in price,” Eeman said. “Another area we’re seeing there’s a Section 301 [tariffs] finding on Chinese semiconductors that would have increased it above the existing 50% rate, but the Trump Administration delayed tariffs for 18 months on that.”
That restraint has also been visible in North American trade. As of late summer, roughly 85% of U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada entered duty-free under USMCA, according to Flexport — though claims are drawing heavier scrutiny from customs auditors.
A central risk for 2026 is the pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court deferred its ruling on whether President Donald Trump overstepped legal authority by using IEEPA to levy sweeping import duties on more than 90 global trade partners.
Jenn Park, Flexport’s director of trade advisory, outlined scenarios ranging from full validation of the tariffs to retroactive refunds.
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