The study treats the network as critical financial infrastructure rather than merely a speculative digital asset.

Italian central bank research has examined theoretical scenarios wherein Ethereum loses all value, analyzing how validator economics would affect Ethereum’s ability to process and settle transactions. The study treats the network as critical financial infrastructure rather than merely a speculative digital asset.

Economist Claudia Biancotti authored the paper “What if Ether Goes to Zero? How Market Risk Becomes Infrastructure Risk in Crypto,” exploring connections between token prices and blockchain operational stability. The research focuses on services depending on Ethereum for settlement, including stablecoins and tokenized financial instruments.
Network validators earn compensation in Ethereum, creating systemic vulnerability if token value collapses and rewards become worthless. Under such conditions, a rational subset of validators would cease operations, reducing the total economic stake securing the network.

Declining validator participation would slow block production and weaken the network’s ability to resist certain attack vectors while compromising transaction finality guarantees. The analysis frames Ether as essential infrastructure input rather than pure investment vehicle.

Biancotti argues that Ethereum increasingly functions as settlement infrastructure for financial activity, meaning native token volatility could undermine the reliability of applications built on top. Market shocks affecting the base asset could cascade into operational failures for dependent financial instruments.

Disruptions would extend beyond speculative trading to affect payment and settlement functions that regulators monitor for systemic importance. The European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund have warned that major stablecoins could pose financial stability risks if their rapid growth continues to be concentrated among few issuers.

An ECB Financial Stability Review from November 2025 highlighted structural weaknesses and traditional finance connections that could trigger runs during severe stress. Asset fire sales and deposit outflows could occur if stablecoin adoption expands while maintaining current risk characteristics.

The Bank of Italy outlined regulatory choices facing authorities: either deeming current public blockchains unsuitable for supervised financial services due to volatile native tokens, or allowing their use with mandatory risk controls, including business continuity plans, backup chains, and minimum validator security standards. The research underscores tension between blockchain innovation and maintaining financial system stability as cryptocurrency infrastructure gains institutional usage.

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