Upside momentum slowed on Wednesday at the record high of $4642.97, however, with Trump dampening expectations of an attack on Iran. Nonetheless, the market remains well supported by rate cut hopes and safe-haven buying.
Strategic Crossroads: Buy Strength or Wait for Value?
Prices may have rallied too far, too fast, giving buyers an excuse to book some profits. Now, the decision process comes down to two strategies: buy strength through the record high, or buy a dip into value levels. Ultimately, it’s a personal preference, but I’ve noticed that while slow and steady is the preference for long-term bulls, headline traders are driving the short-term rally and volatility. I don’t expect this pattern to change as long as the trend is up.
Economic Data Supports Fed Rate Cut Expectations for 2026
Economic data is also playing a role in this week’s activity. Gold bulls were handed permission to rally on Tuesday when U.S. consumer inflation data affirmed one or two rate cuts this year. Although a rate cut in January is not likely, traders have priced in at least two between March and December 2026. On Thursday, stronger than expected initial claims data dampened expectations of an early rate cut, but the news wasn’t strong enough to take all cuts off the table.
Geopolitical Tensions Remain Supportive but Not at Current Levels
Given the friction in Iran has only softened rather than disappeared entirely, the geopolitical backdrop remains supportive—just not at current elevated price levels, suggesting traders may be waiting for a pullback before re-entering.
Technical Picture: Uptrend Intact with Key Levels in Focus