PEMEX’s flagship Dos Bocas refinery continues to operate below its designed capacity more than a year after the start of its operations, according to official data from PEMEX and recent reporting by Animal Político. The gap between public statements from political leaders and the figures contained in PEMEX’s own Institutional Database has renewed scrutiny over the performance of the project, which is central to the federal government’s strategy for energy sovereignty and reduced fuel imports.
Since it began operations, Dos Bocas has been presented by the ruling MORENA party as a symbol of the recovery of Mexico’s refining capacity and downstream sector; part of an energy sovereignty discourse. On social media, party representatives have claimed that the refinery processes up to 300Mb/d and that key units, including the coking unit, are operating at full capacity. However, in November 2025, the most recent month with publicly available figures, Dos Bocas processed 206.808Mb/d of crude oil and produced 180.609Mb/d of petroleum products. These volumes are significantly below both the 300Mb figure cited publicly and the refinery’s planned maximum capacity.
PEMEX itself has stated that Dos Bocas should reach a daily processing capacity of 340Mb starting in August 2024. Since that date, the highest level of crude processing reported in the Institutional Database has remained at 206.808Mb/d. As a result, in November the refinery operated at 60.8% of its processing capacity and only 53.1% of its production capacity, according to Animal Político’s analysis.
The discrepancies extend to recent public remarks by President Claudia Sheinbaum. On Jan. 4, during an event in the state of Hidalgo, Sheinbaum stated that Dos Bocas was producing 320Mb/d of petroleum products. Yet, November data contradict this claim, and PEMEX has not yet released figures for December 2025 that might support the higher number. Earlier, on Oct. 10, 2024, Sheinbaum said that the refinery was operating at around 80% of capacity and was on track to reach full operation. In that same month, however, PEMEX reported no crude processing at Dos Bocas and the production of only 33.213Mb/d of petroleum products, equivalent to just 9.7% of its maximum capacity.
Throughout 2025, Dos Bocas has consistently fallen short of the 200Mb/d threshold in petroleum product output. The highest level recorded was 192.459Mb/d in September. During November, its output also lagged behind that of older refineries such as Salina Cruz in Oaxaca and Tula in Hidalgo, both of which have shown stronger and more consistent utilization rates.
These figures contrast with broader improvements in Mexico’s refining system. According to Industry and Energy Magazine, PEMEX closed November with one of its strongest performances in petroleum product output in more than a decade. Gasoline production reached 413.503Mb/d, a 75.4% increase compared to November 2024 and the highest November level since 2009. Diesel production also rose to 280.705Mb/d, marking its best result since December 2015. This rebound has been driven by higher utilization across the National Refining System, which had operated at around 50 to 55% of capacity in recent years.
Against this backdrop, Dos Bocas stands out as a project that has yet to meet expectations. While the overall refining system is showing signs of recovery, the country’s newest and most expensive refinery has not reached the production levels that have been repeatedly promised. Analysts note that bringing a complex facility like Dos Bocas to full operation requires sustained technical performance, stable crude supply, and time to resolve operational setbacks. Until the refinery consistently approaches its design capacity, questions are likely to persist about its real contribution to Mexico’s energy goals and the credibility of official claims surrounding its performance.