The political and diplomatic dynamics between the United States of America and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has been strained during the 21st century. But as early as 1stto 4th Quarter of 2025, the United States (US) was rapidly expanding its military presence in the Caribbean, signaling a likely shift from maritime operations to targeted land strikes in Venezuela which busted out as early as 2026. Initially, failed negotiations with President Nicolas Maduro and increasingly aggressive rhetorical acceleration from US from last year’s trajectory.

Heightened U.S. military activity, stalled diplomacy, and consistently confrontational statements combined with wider strategic, political, and economic interests suggest that US has been planning to expand its operations from the Caribbean into strikes on Venezuelan soil not only this 2026 but in the near future. 

Since October, the United States has bolstered its regional military footprint, most notably with the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford the largest aircraft carrier in the world to the Caribbean on Nov. 16. While interestingly, U.S. actions that were once limited to maritime operations were poised to expand onto Venezuelan soil.

At the same time, U.S. forces have continued targeting vessels they claim are involved in drug trafficking across the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, carrying out 23 strikes that have reportedly killed 87 people. During the first operation on Sept. 2, U.S. forces launched a secondary strike that may have killed surviving crew members. These actions have generated domestic backlash, triggered congressional investigations and raising serious concerns that U.S. forces may have committed war crimes.  To give a context, here are the major highlights of unprecedented event in as far as growing tensions and military pressures are concerned: 

January 10, 2025 — Maduro Inaugurated. Nicolás Maduro begins controversial third presidential term amid criticism of electoral legitimacy. 

Mid-2025 — Expanded U.S. Military Posture. The United States significantly increases its naval and aerial presence in the Caribbean, launching Operation Southern Spearaimed at countering drug trafficking. U.S. forces conduct repeated lethal strikes on maritime vessels alleged to be involved in narco-trafficking, many linked (by U.S. claims) to Venezuelan networks. 

December 10, 2025 — Oil Blockade and Tanker Seizures Begin. The U.S. marine and Coast Guard units intercept and seize oil tankers transporting Venezuelan crude in Caribbean waters as part of an oil blockade tied to sanctions enforcement. 

Late December 2025 — Shift Toward Land Targets. The U.S. authorizes its first reported land-based strike on Venezuelan soil, targeting drug flows. This marks a clear escalation beyond maritime interdiction. Remarkably, President Donald Trump publicly states the U.S. will “run Venezuela” until a “safe, proper transition” occurs, implying de facto control over governance and resources

January 2026: Major Escalation and Regime Decapitation

January 3, 2026 — Operation Absolute Resolve. U.S. forces launch a large-scale military operation in Venezuela, striking multiple military sites and extracting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from Miraflores Palace to New York. The operation, involving U.S. Army Special Forces, air assets, and naval support, results in dozens of fatalities, including Cuban military personnel according to Cuban authorities.

Post-Intervention Developments

Early January 2026 — Regional and Global Reaction. Latin American leaders and international organizations condemn the strike as a breach of sovereignty and international law. Some U.S. allies caution against setting dangerous precedents, while others praise the removal of Maduro. 

January 10–15, 2026 — Evacuation and Security Warnings. The U.S. issues travel advisories urging citizens to flee Venezuela amid reports of armed militias (colectivos) searching for Americans. 

Mid-January 2026 — Continued Seizures and Political Shifts. The U.S. seizes additional sanctioned oil tankers in the Caribbean, reinforcing the strategic emphasis on controlling Venezuelan energy flows.  Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, signals willingness to open the oil sector to foreign investment and pursue diplomatic engagement while condemning Maduro’s detention.

Last semester in my International Political Economy class, I discussed and forecasted that United States is highly likely to escalate military activity from strikes at sea to direct attacks on Venezuelan territory within weeks of December 2025. This is another key topic apart from the current Thailand-Cambodia fallout that has also started in most recent year. Some key manifestations in US-Valenzuela conflict have seen are as follows (as mentioned above): U.S. military presence in the Caribbean especially with the USS Gerald R. Fordcarrier strike group has grown significantly. US has been conducting repeated attacks on vessels allegedly involved in drug trafficking, which have resulted in dozens of deaths and controversy inside and outside the U.S. military and political establishment.  Also, there are negotiations between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments failed to de-escalate tensions, while public rhetoric from both sides remains hostile. 

Against this backdrop, these military, political, and geostrategic pressures set the conditions for a U.S. decision to strike land targets in Venezuela recently; ostensibly justified as counternarcotics actions but with broader implications. 

Now, what are the other things happening right now. The U.S. Military operations have already escalated since December; that carried out repeated strikes on vessels it labels as involved in drug trafficking near Venezuela, as part of Operation Southern Spear a larger military campaign in the Caribbean. Moreover, there are now multiple oil tanker seizures and an imposed blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil shipments, reflecting an effort to choke Venezuela’s revenue and influence. 

In the meantime, there are already Airspace and Naval Build-Ups. In fact, the U.S. has declared Venezuelan airspace “closed” and positioned a significant naval force offshore, raising the stakes and risk of miscalculation. And apparently, a direct strike has already occurred. Reporting indicates that the U.S. executed an operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026, involving extensive military engagement around Caracas. Separate DOJ Memorandums describe U.S. forces planning and anticipating resistance from Venezuelan air defenses during the strike. 

There are domestic and international political dynamics occurred too. The U.S. public shows substantial support for intervention, especially when framed in terms of counternarcotics or energy geopolitics. Russia, China, and many Latin American governments strongly condemn U.S. actions as violations of international law and sovereignty. 

Some Dynamics and Strategic Analysis

Relative to the counternarcotic narrative, the U.S. frames its operations as targeting drug trafficking networks linked to Venezuela. This narrative aims to build domestic support and provide a legalistic justification for military action. It followed by a regime change pressure. Beyond counternarcotics, U.S. actions suggest an ambition to weaken or remove Nicolás Maduro’s government, a longstanding adversary. This has moved from sanctions and maritime pressure to kinetic operations and, as of January 2026, capture of Maduro. And nonetheless, in terms of energy and economic leverage, Venezuela’s oil reserves are among the largest globally. Control over Venezuelan energy assets could shift global energy markets and reduce U.S. dependency on Middle Eastern supplies, a point raised by some analysts and polling. 

There will always be consequences of this geopolitical ramification. Risk-wise, as per regional instability, Venezuelan forces and allied militias may resist fiercely, leading to prolonged conflict. Likewise, civilian harm will escalate even in maritime and ground engagements risk casualties and displacement. And we can see various diplomatic backlash where many governments see such actions as breaches of the U.N. Charter and sovereignty norms.  

In longer terms, sustained operations could resemble guerrilla conflicts, similar to Vietnam or Iraq in complexity as military entanglements heighten up. U.S.–Russia/China rivalries could deepen, as both support opposing Venezuelan factions, unfolding a more geopolitical polarization in the region down to domestic political condition. Control over Venezuela’s oil sector will shape both domestic capacities and global market dynamics. Popular sentiment and elite divisions will determine whether the interim government consolidates authority or faces increasing resistance[1]. Russia, China, and regional blocs (CARICOM, MERCOSUR) will compete to define post-Maduro governance norms. Equally, an international legal challenge is brewing as hot military actions without broad international authorization risk labeling the U.S. as a violator of international law as President Trump sets a devastating precedent in Venezuela. 

It matters not only in Latin America and nearby American states but across the region. This international crisis is not only an escalation into Venezuelan territorial dispute, but it marks a major shift in U.S. hemispheric strategy, aimed at weakening Maduro and shaping long-term political change. Indeed, such serious and stratified strikes would carry significant geopolitical, economic, and legal consequences but we hope to attract foreign investment (especially in oil) and hoping to flow and stabilize the economy. As way ahead, we can expect more regional tensions ease modestly, though many neighboring countries will push for multilateral oversight beyond this critical crisis overture.

*Ideas and/or views expressed here are entirely independent and not in any form represent author’s organization and affiliation.

Footnote:

[1] The interim Venezuelan government, backed by U.S. influence, initiates political reforms and prepares for new elections under external supervision. Meanwhile, we can expect armed resistance from pro-Maduro factions or foreign volunteer brigades fuel ongoing conflict since infrastructure damage and economic stagnation complicate reconstruction and erode public trust. Interestingly, external actors exploit unrest to push geopolitical agendas.