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SM Energy (SM) has been drawing attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed performance across the past week, month and past 3 months, prompting investors to reassess its current valuation and fundamentals.
See our latest analysis for SM Energy.
At a share price of $19.28, SM Energy has seen a 5.76% 7 day share price return and a 4.16% 30 day share price return, although its 1 year total shareholder return of 49.61% decline contrasts with a 129.65% gain over five years. This suggests shorter term momentum is currently softer than its longer run track record.
If SM Energy’s recent swings have you reassessing the sector, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out aerospace and defense stocks as another area of opportunity.
With SM Energy trading at $19.28, alongside solid recent revenue and net income growth, the key question is whether the market is overlooking value here or already pricing in any future recovery in returns.
The most followed narrative pegs SM Energy’s fair value at $31.42, well above the last close at $19.28, which sets up a clear valuation gap for investors to assess.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $40.0 for SM Energy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $59.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $27.0.
Curious how an energy producer with shifting margin assumptions and a lower future earnings multiple still lands at a higher fair value than today’s price? The narrative relies on a specific blend of revenue growth, profit compression, and discount rate inputs that do not tell a simple story. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts connect to that $31.42 figure, the full narrative lays out the numbers in black and white.
Result: Fair Value of $31.42 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this story could change quickly if logistics in the Uinta Basin tighten again or if new regulatory costs in core shale regions start to squeeze margins.
Find out about the key risks to this SM Energy narrative.
If you see the data differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a full SM Energy narrative yourself in minutes by starting with Do it your way.