The Defence Intelligence Agency of Finland (PVTIEDL) published the “Public Military Intelligence Review 2025,” providing a comprehensive analysis of key security trends, potential threat scenarios, and strategic challenges at both national and global levels. The report notes that following Finland’s accession to NATO, the country has become a significantly higher-priority target for Russian intelligence activities.
The report identifies Russia as the primary source of military risks for Finland and Europe, driven by the modernization of its nuclear arsenal and a large-scale armed forces reform. After the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow is likely to focus on the northwestern strategic direction and accelerate its military transformations.
The review also highlights the gradual strengthening of China as a global center of political, economic, and military influence through 2049. Beijing is steadily expanding its military capabilities, particularly in the naval domain, leveraging the fact that Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine diverts Western strategic attention.
The Baltic Sea is identified as one of the key areas of security competition between the West and Russia. The Kremlin combines military activity in the region with risks of sabotage to critical infrastructure and interference with Finland’s navigation systems. The report emphasizes that over 40% of Russia’s foreign trade, including energy resources, passes through the Baltic Sea.
The Arctic is also gaining strategic importance as an area of interest for both Russia and China, with Moscow seeking to secure the Northern Sea Route as an international trade corridor. PVTIEDL notes that, in the medium term, the Russia-Ukraine war remains a key factor in constraining Russian military activity in the Baltic region. At the same time, given limited opportunities for direct escalation, Russia is increasingly expected to employ hybrid tools, including sabotage against underwater and port infrastructure and interference with NATO countries’ navigation systems.