On Friday, gold prices dropped and the dollar gained, suggesting traders see Warsh as likely to stick to his initial instincts as a “hawk” who favours higher interest rates.
Narayana Kocherlakota, a finance professor at the University of Rochester, who served on the Fed with Warsh, said he thinks he would go against the president if conditions called for it.
“He’s very smart and he’s very independent. And I think that’s the kind of person that Americans should want at the head of their central bank,” Kocherlakota said.
Others argue Warsh’s thinking on the economy has evolved to be closely aligned with Trump, including downplaying concerns that rapid growth and rising wages could fuel inflation.
“Warsh is not the Fed’s guy, he is Trump’s guy, and has shadowed Trump on monetary policy almost every step of the way since 2009,” wrote Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.
For now, Warsh may look like the candidate most likely to satisfy all parties.
But Trump’s swift turn on Powell – his last pick for Fed chair – should serve as a cautionary reminder.
Reporting contributed by Danielle Kaye, Daniel Bush and Jonathan Josephs