International Monetary Fund (IMF)The Ghana Association of Banks has called on financial institutions to strengthen their risk management frameworks ahead of the country’s planned exit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme in August 2026. The Association warns that withdrawal of external programme support could expose banks to fresh economic pressures despite ongoing macroeconomic improvements.
The IMF proposed extending Ghana’s bailout programme by three months to August 2026, moving the end date from the original May timeline to allow completion of final reforms and the sixth programme review. The 36 month ECF arrangement, approved in May 2023, provides access equivalent to Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 2.2419 billion, or about three billion United States dollars.
In its recent briefing, the Association acknowledged that stabilisation efforts have boosted economic confidence and created opportunities for credit expansion. However, it cautioned that the operating environment could become more volatile once the IMF programme concludes and external oversight ends.
The Association identified several key risks that could emerge after programme exit. These include potential fluctuations in global interest rates, the threat of capital flow reversals, and renewed pressure on the cedi. Such external shocks could tighten liquidity conditions and increase funding costs across the banking sector, potentially straining bank balance sheets if not managed proactively.
To build resilience, the Association urged banks to reinforce risk management systems, maintain prudent lending standards and diversify their loan portfolios. It particularly encouraged increased financing for infrastructure development and high growth sectors of the economy. The Association stressed that a disciplined and forward looking approach would prove critical to safeguarding financial stability once IMF support ends.
Ghana’s performance under the IMF programme has been broadly satisfactory, with all quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets met for the fifth review. The country’s inflation rate declined to 5.4 percent in December 2025, down from 23.8 percent a year earlier, marking 12 consecutive months of disinflation.
On the inflation outlook, the Association projected that inflation would remain in single digits throughout 2026, supported by continued fiscal discipline as the IMF backed programme winds down. It attributed the positive outlook to stronger external reserves, tight monetary policy and ongoing fiscal consolidation.
The Association pointed to the sharp decline in inflation as evidence of a strong disinflation phase, driven by tight monetary conditions, fiscal consolidation and relative exchange rate stability. The cedi has appreciated significantly in 2025, rallying nearly 35 percent against the dollar on the back of strong cocoa and gold prices.
However, the Association cautioned that inflationary risks could resurface once IMF support ends. Looking beyond 2026, it noted that sustaining low inflation would depend on anchoring inflation expectations, maintaining fiscal discipline and addressing structural challenges.
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has begun a cautious monetary easing cycle, with the policy rate reduced from 27 percent to 18 percent by November 2025. The central bank has repeatedly emphasized that any further easing must remain gradual and data dependent to prevent inflation from rebounding.
Structural challenges identified by the Association include persistent food price pressures and import dependence, which could trigger inflation if not properly managed. Food inflation accounts for roughly 43 percent of household spending in Ghana’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, making it a critical component in overall price stability.
The IMF has also flagged ongoing vulnerabilities in its assessment of Ghana’s economic outlook. Risks include exposure to regional conflicts, terrorism, commodity price volatility, and trade and investment shocks. Domestic policy slippages could undermine macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, the Fund warned.
Ghana’s banking sector faces additional challenges from energy sector shortfalls and state owned enterprise (SOE) risks. The IMF noted that delays in implementing the Energy Sector Recovery Programme could require additional budgetary resources and trigger electricity and fuel supply disruptions.
Ghana is on track to achieve a primary surplus of 1.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by year end. The 2026 budget submitted to Parliament aligns with programme objectives and the new fiscal responsibility framework while accommodating developmental and security needs.
Bank of Ghana Governor Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama stated in October 2025 that the country had started running ahead of programme targets on virtually all indicators. He announced that Ghana would be able to exit the programme when it concludes, demonstrating a strong economic turnaround from challenges experienced in recent years.
Ghana has received approximately 2.8 billion dollars following successful completion of the fifth programme review. The fifth review, completed in December 2025, allowed for immediate disbursement of about 385 million dollars.
The World Bank has encouraged Ghana to be intentional about breaking away from repeated reliance on IMF programmes. In its September 2025 policy notes, the institution emphasized that Ghana must break from past governance failures marked by fiscal indiscipline, inefficiency and repeated IMF interventions.
Financial sector stability remains a priority as Ghana transitions away from IMF oversight. The Association’s warnings underscore concerns that the gains achieved under programme discipline could be threatened if banks fail to adequately prepare for the post programme environment.
The central bank has made progress in bolstering financial stability by implementing bank recapitalization plans and initiating recapitalization of key state owned banks. However, vulnerabilities persist, requiring stronger governance in state owned banks and robust supervisory strategies to enhance credit and operational risk management.
Gross international reserves have grown to approximately 13.8 billion dollars, equivalent to nearly six months of import cover, providing a substantial buffer against external shocks. The improvement in reserves represents a significant turnaround from the acute foreign exchange shortages that characterized the 2022 crisis.
Market interest rates have adjusted downward in response to monetary policy easing. The Ghana Reference Rate (GRR) declined from 29.72 percent in January 2025 to 15.68 percent by early January 2026, reflecting improving liquidity across the financial system and supporting a cautious recovery in private sector credit.
The Association’s call for preparation comes at a critical juncture as banks navigate the transition from IMF supported stability to self sustained macroeconomic management. Success will depend on maintaining the fiscal discipline, monetary prudence and structural reforms that have characterized the programme period.