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Oil, trade risks for India amid Iran-Israel war
BBusiness

Oil, trade risks for India amid Iran-Israel war

  • 2026-03-02
Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel pose a threat to India’s energy security. Disruptions in West Asia could lift oil prices, push inflation higher, pressure the rupee, and force exporters to seek alternative trade routes. The region remains India’s largest trading bloc at $178.5 billion, making stability critical. Anoushka Sawhney & Kritika Suneja take a look:

West Asia’s trade share has risen, while Iran and Israel remain marginal in India’s overall trade basket.

Share in India’s trade (%)

Country/RegionFY19FY25West Asia14.415.4Iran20.1Israel0.70.3

(Note: West Asia includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.)

The UAE anchors India’s trade relationship with West Asia.

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India-West Asia trade (FY25, $ b)

CountryExportsImportsBahrain0.80.8Kuwait1.98.3Oman4.16.5Qatar1.712.5Saudi Arabia11.830.1UAE36.663.4Iran1.20.4Israel2.11.5

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint. Around 40-50% of India’s crude imports, 55% of LNG supplies, and 80-90% of cooking gas imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Benchmark Brent futures settled near $73 a barrel on Friday, around $6 higher since early February. Prolonged tensions could lead to higher oil risk. The economic spillover could widen the current account deficit and increase pressure on the rupee. Remittance flows may turn vulnerable, while higher freight, insurance costs, transit delays, airspace curbs and supply chain costs could add to the burden.

West Asia is India’s third largest export market, accounting for 13% of India’s exports in FY25.

Major exports to GCC ($ billion)

Commodity2023-242024-25Mineral fuels, oils11.29.9Natural or cultured pearls8.58.2Electrical machinery & equipment4.64.9Aircraft, spacecraft & parts thereof1.53.3Nuclear reactors, boilers2.73.3

Energy dominates imports from the region, accounting for 16.9% of imports in FY25.Top imports ($ billion)

Commodity2023-242024-25Mineral fuels, oils61.468.3Natural or cultured pearls20.827.8Aircraft, spacecraft & parts thereof3.64.2Organic chemicals3.03.3Fertilisers2.33.0

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry

  • Tags:
  • business
  • current Account deficit
  • GCC trade with India
  • India energy security
  • iran israel tensions
  • Ministry of Commerce and Industry
  • oil imports from Iran and UAE
  • oil prices and inflation
  • Strait of Hormuz
  • tariffs
  • trade war
  • West Asia
  • West Asia trade
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