Research shows that human activity has a significant impact on global warming, with the rate of its increase over the last decade nearly doubling.

Scientists’ conclusions emphasize that the rate of increase in the average global temperature from 1970 to 2015 was less than 0.2°C per decade, while in the last 10 years it has been about 0.35°C. This is the highest figure since systematic measurements began in 1880.

“If the pace of warming in the last 10 years persists, it will lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement by 2030.”

– Stefan Rahmstorf

Main findings and risks

According to the study data, extreme heat in recent years is partly driven by natural factors – solar activity, volcanic activity, and the El Niño climate phenomenon.

Scientists applied a “noise-reduction” method to separate the influence of natural factors from anthropogenic ones in five key data sets. In each of them, an acceleration of global warming was recorded, starting around 2013–2014.

According to experts, carbon dioxide emissions have raised the average global temperature by roughly 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. An additional factor was the reduction in the concentration of sulfur particles in the atmosphere, which previously produced a temporary cooling effect.

Climatologists warn that an increase of 1.5–2°C could trigger “tipping points” that unfold over decades and centuries, and the risk of disasters will rise with higher temperatures.

According to scientists, the acceleration aligns with models: in some datasets the world could exceed the 1.5°C threshold in the near future, while other projections point to 2028–2029.

“However, an important caveat is that the acceleration may prove to be temporary.”

– Claudie Bolye

In January the World Meteorological Organization stated: the previous three years were the hottest on record. Scientists also note a high level of air pollution, which intensifies climate change.

“The pace of further warming of the Earth ultimately depends on how quickly we can cut global CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to zero,” Rahmstorf stressed.

Experts emphasize that to curb threats, ambitious steps are needed to transition to clean energy sources and increase energy efficiency worldwide.