President Donald Trump reportedly asked two dozen donors at Mar-a-Lago what they thought of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for 2028, with the crowd applauding louder for Rubio.
On Polymarket’s 2028 Republican nominee market, Vance leads at 39% to Rubio’s 26%.
But the trajectory favors Rubio. His odds have nearly tripled since December. The market has drawn $373 million in total volume.
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On Kalshi, the gap is narrower: Vance at 38%, Rubio at 32%.
Speaking to governors in February, Trump called Vance “a brilliant guy” but added “we gotta slow him down just a little bit.” He described Rubio as the “opposite extreme,” adding “Marco does it with a velvet glove, but it’s still a kill.”
Trump’s second term has been dominated by foreign policy, and that’s been Rubio’s stage.
The WSJ reported Rubio was physically at Mar-a-Lago for both the Iran strikes and the Maduro capture. Vance beamed in virtually both times.
On the Iran operation, Trump said Vance was “maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic.”
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But popular conservative podcast host Patrick Bet-David said he recently surveyed his audience and Rubio came out as the clear favorite.
“Every chance I get, I bring up Marco,” he said.
Vance’s camp is fighting back. Donald Trump Jr. alleged in January that right-wing influencers are being paid to attack the vice president online, calling it “arguably the most obvious and flagrant operation I’ve ever seen in the history of social media.”
Palantir Technologies Inc CEO Alex Karp and ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance attended a Vance fundraiser that netted roughly $6 million.
Turning Point USA has endorsed Vance for president, which has been viewed as premature inside the White House.
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The near-term repricing event may be the 2026 midterms. Vance is running the GOP’s midterm strategy through his role at the RNC.
Polymarket traders currently give Democrats a 44% chance of taking the House and Senate.
A bad November for Republicans could be fatal for Vance’s nomination prospects.
Trump told the WSJ he hopes Vance and Rubio run together, but Republican strategists reportedly see that as unlikely.