By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, March 16 (Reuters) – The dollar held near a 10-month high on Monday in a tentative start to the week, as investors braced for a slew of central bank meetings under the shadow of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
At least eight central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan meet this week to set rates, in their first policy meetings since the Middle East conflict began.
Focus will be on policymakers’ assessment of the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and growth.
“The war … poses downside risk to economic growth and upside risks to inflation, so central bank responses will very much depend on the recent context, specifically whether inflation has been above, on, or below target,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Ahead of the meetings, the dollar retraced some of last week’s strong gains, leaving the euro bouncing slightly from a 7-1/2-month low hit earlier in the session to trade 0.14% higher at $1.1433.
Sterling was up 0.17% at $1.3245, though was not far from the 3-1/2-month low it hit on Friday as it clocked a 1.5% weekly decline.
The dollar index eased slightly to 100.20, but remained perched near last week’s 10-month high.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he is demanding that other countries help protect the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Washington is in talks with several nations about policing the critical shipping lane for oil and gas.
He warned in a separate interview with the Financial Times that NATO faces a “very bad” future if U.S. allies fail to assist in opening up the Strait.
The prospect of easing global energy disruptions sent oil prices down slightly, but markets remained in disarray with geopolitical tensions still running high and uncertainty over when the war, now in its third week, could end.
“As things stand now, the likelihood we will really see a change in current trajectory for central banks and their monetary policies around the world is, in our view, very, very limited,” said Jorry Noeddekaer, head of global emerging markets and Asia at Polar Capital, whose base case is for the war to be relatively short-lived.
RBA TO HIKE, BOJ IN DIFFICULT SPOT
The Australian dollar was up 0.55% at $0.7019, buoyed by hawkish rate expectations at home as the Reserve Bank of Australia is seen tightening policy on Tuesday.
Markets are now pricing in a 74% chance that the RBA could deliver a 25-basis-point hike.
“We are now pencilling two more hikes, one this week and another in May,” said CBA’s Kong.