Italy vs Northern Ireland tips:

Things couldn’t be much tougher for Northern Ireland as they face four-time champions Italy in their World Cup play-off on Thursday (kick-off 7:45 pm live on BBC iPlayer, BBC One NI and BBC Three).

Michael O’Neill’s side currently sit 69th in the Fifa world rankings, with Italy, who last won the competition back in 2006, sitting 12th, so it’s no surprise that football betting sites have the Azzurri as the favourites to qualify at 4/6.

They have failed to qualify for the last two tournaments, though and are not the force they once were, so Northern Ireland have nothing to lose.

It’s been 40 years since NI last qualified for a World Cup, and they won just three of their six qualifying matches, to finish third in Group A behind Germany and Slovakia. They enjoyed back-to-back World Cup appearances at Spain 1982 and Mexico 1986, but they haven’t been back since.

Italy, on the other hand, won six of their eight qualifying games, losing the other two, to miss out on automatic qualification as they finished six points behind Norway, who won Group I with a 100% record.

The winner of Thursday’s tie faces a trip to either Wales or Bosnia in the final play-off game, where the prize will be a place in Group B at the World Cup, alongside co-hosts Canada, Switzerland and Qatar.

Italy vs Northern Ireland betting: Hosts to make light work of their opponents

This will be the eighth meeting between the two sides, and Northern Ireland are still looking for their first win and first goal.

Two have finished goalless, including last time out in November 2021, and they lost the other five without scoring.

It is going to be hard for O’Neill’s side to break that scoring duck as goals are hard to come by with 11 in their last 10 games, and three of them came against lowly Luxembourg.

In direct contrast, Italy have scored 19 in their six matches this season and 25 in 10 games in the last 12 months.

They scored five against Estonia and Israel and three against Germany, and you can get 18/5 on them scoring over 3.5 on Thursday.

Things really couldn’t be much tougher for Northern Ireland, and I fear for them if Italy can find their groove in Bergamo.

Betting sites are offering a small price on an Italy win, while you can get 12/1 on an away win, which really would be the shock of the night.

Italy vs Northern Ireland prediction 1: Italy to score over 2.5 goals – 7/5 William Hill

Italy vs Northern Ireland prediction: Pio Esposito to continue his impressive Italy career

Inter striker Francesco Pio Esposito has scored three goals in his last four appearances for Italy and has 12 for the season so far.

He only made his international debut in September 2025, coming as a substitute in the 84th minute against Estonia in the World Cup qualifiers.

The 20-year-old has scored three goals for his country and will go into the game full of confidence after netting two in two for Inter against Atalanta and Fiorentina.

Italy vs Northern Ireland prediction 2: Pio Esposito to score -13/10 Betway

Italy vs Northern Ireland team news:

Italy: Liverpool forward Federico Chiesa has withdrawn from the squad, while Newcastle midfielder Sandro Tonali is in the squad despite missing Sunday’s defeat by Sunderland.

Northern Ireland: O’Neill is without defenders Conor Bradley (knee) and Dan Ballard (hamstring), which is a big blow for a squad short of top-level experience.

Italy vs Northern Ireland betting offers

New customers can claim £30 in free bets by signing up for Paddy Power and betting on Italy vs Northern Ireland in their World Cup playoff showdown on Thursday.

To unlock the betting sign up offer, new customers must use the link below and the Paddy Power promo code YSKAST before depositing £5 and betting £5 on any Italy vs Northern Ireland market with odds of evens or greater.

Once your qualifying bet has settled, you’ll receive £30 in free bets to use on Paddy Power. Free bets are active for 30 days.

Please gamble responsibly

When having a bet, it’s vital to practice responsible gambling.

Betting can be addictive and it’s important to stay in control of your betting. Never treat gambling as a way to make money, never bet more than you can afford and when the fun stops, stop.

Gambling sites offer punters tools, like deposit limits, profit and loss trackers and self-exclusion options, to help them stay in control.

But if you ever feel like you need help or advice on gambling addiction, don’t hesitate to contact one of the charities or organisations below.

We may earn commission from some of the links in this article, but we never allow this to influence our content. This revenue helps to fund journalism across The Independent.