TRM Labs published a report on prediction markets.
The organization noted a sharp surge in activity.
Monthly trading volume in the sector rose to $20 billion, while the number of active addresses climbed to 840,000.
At the same time, crypto event markets took a back seat, уступив геополитическим.
From the start of 2025 through January 2026 inclusive, monthly trading volume on prediction markets grew from $1.2 billion to more than $20 billion, and geopolitical markets moved into first place. This follows from a TRM Labs report.
The organization’s experts noted a sharp increase in activity in the sector, driven by a growing user base. Over the past six months alone, the number of unique wallets tripled, reaching 840,000.
Monthly trading volume on prediction markets. Source: TRM Labs report.
Monthly number of unique addresses on prediction markets. Source: TRM Labs report.
At the same time, the experts also pointed to a shift in the most popular markets on these platforms. Polymarket, which is banned in Ukraine, is cited as an example.
Disclaimer: This material is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for gambling or a call to participate in it. Polymarket is mentioned solely as part of a review of the digital asset market and is not intended to popularize or promote the platform.
In October 2025, the top five markets looked like this:
the next mayor of New York City
the winner of the 2026 Super Bowl
the Fed’s rate decision
the number of participants in the MegaETH token sale, even though the event itself never happened
Bitcoin’s price at the end of October 2025
By February 2026, the situation had changed completely. Of the five largest markets, only one was tied to the economy and finance — the Fed’s decision in March 2026. The rest were tied to geopolitics and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Based on this, TRM Labs identified four defining features of Polymarket’s market structure, which are also applicable to other platforms in the sector:
geopolitics dominates overall, but liquidity in these markets is “spread thin” across many positions, often interconnected
US politics remains a relevant topic, the second most popular
the platform does not distinguish between “serious” and “non-serious” markets
the platform also does not rank positions by category, for example, commodities, stocks, and so on.
User Classification
According to the report, the most active cohort was users with 11 to 1,000 trades (they account for 44.7% of active addresses and $869 million in trading volume).
Wallets with more than 10,000 trades make up 35.2% of active addresses and $774 million in trading volume. Users with just one trade account for only 0.2% of active addresses and $3.5 million in trading volume.
The median trade size is $30 for newcomers and $12 for active users. The report emphasizes that this points to high-frequency trading in small sizes.
At the same time, both low-activity addresses and experienced traders, including algorithmic ones, mostly place bets on geopolitical markets. Crypto accounts for only a small share.
Meanwhile, entertainment and sports are popular among fairly active users and market makers, but not among newcomers.
Based on data from the 10 most profitable wallets, TRM Labs experts identified three core betting strategies on the platform — a focus on macroeconomic events, with one wallet trading contracts on both outcomes of the Fed’s rate decision; algorithmic market making; and event-driven opportunism.
The organization’s specialists also found signs of insider trading and market manipulation. As an example, they cited four wallets that turned $40,000 into $872,000 by betting on a US strike on Iran. They acted in sync, used the same infrastructure, and exited the market at the same time.
“Over the past year, prediction markets have grown from a niche product into an ecosystem with more than $20 billion in monthly volume. They could become infrastructure for assessing event probabilities and compete with traditional analytics. But there are also issues: market integrity, manipulation, the use of non-public information, and the lack of clear regulatory frameworks,” the experts concluded.
As a reminder, we previously reported that Kalshi and Polymarket introduced additional measures to counter insider betting.