The BoE itself has emphasised that while monetary policy cannot reverse a supply shock, it must respond to the risk of persistent inflation effects—leaving the door open to a more restrictive stance if the shock proves larger or longer-lasting.
The hawkish tilt implied by the latest hike-focused poll contrasts with previous broker surveys that leaned towards rate reductions.
For example, an August 2025 Landbay survey found brokers were overwhelmingly positioned for further cuts, with a majority expecting at least two reductions by early 2026.
And while some economist forecasts published by Mortgage Introducer earlier in the year still pointed to two 25bp cuts in 2026 (to 3.25% by year-end), they also stressed that timing—and inflation persistence—remained the key risk for lenders and borrowers.
If brokers’ one-to-two hikes scenario plays out, it would reinforce the case for advisers to prioritise product resilience and client flexibility—particularly for households approaching refixes in 2026, and for would-be buyers navigating affordability tests that can tighten quickly when swap curves reprice.