In recent months, Lam Research has reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, expanded collaborations with IBM and CEA-Leti, and continued to benefit from elevated AI-driven demand for its etch and deposition tools across DRAM, HBM, and advanced logic production.
A particularly interesting development is billionaire investor Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates more than doubling its Lam Research stake in 2025, underscoring growing institutional attention to the company’s role in AI-centric semiconductor manufacturing.
We’ll now examine how Lam’s AI-related demand strength and new IBM collaboration may reshape its existing investment narrative and risk profile.
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To own Lam Research, you need to believe AI-led demand for DRAM, HBM and advanced logic will keep pulling through more etch and deposition tools, while Lam maintains its process leadership. The key near term catalyst remains AI infrastructure capex translating into sustained orders and high utilization of Lam’s installed base; the biggest current risk is a reversal in memory and foundry spending or tighter export rules. The latest news, including Dalio’s position increase, does not materially change those drivers.
The new IBM collaboration around sub 1 nm logic scaling is the announcement that most directly reinforces Lam’s AI narrative. It ties the company’s core strengths in etch, deposition and High NA EUV integration to future nodes that underpin data center, HBM and advanced packaging demand. If those IBM enabled process flows gain traction at leading foundries, they could support Lam’s order visibility around its most important AI related catalyst.
Yet investors should also keep a close eye on how export controls and customer concentration could affect Lam’s China exposure and long term margin profile…
Read the full narrative on Lam Research (it’s free!)
Lam Research’s narrative projects $23.6 billion revenue and $6.7 billion earnings by 2028.
Uncover how Lam Research’s forecasts yield a $274.90 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.
LRCX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Some analysts were already far more optimistic, assuming Lam could reach about US$41.6 billion in revenue and US$15.4 billion in earnings, but the latest AI and collaboration news might either support that bullish view or force a rethink, so it is worth comparing how differently you and those analysts weigh that upside against the risk of tighter export rules.