Writer, journalist and political commentator Māris Zanders was the guest in last week’s “Brīvības bulvāris” discussion show on Latvian Radio, casting his experienced and expressive eye over the political landscape in general and the looming parliamentary elections in October in particular.
In this regard, the current election campaign in Hungary was also prominent in the conversation between Zanders and interviewer Gints Grūbe. Their exchanges have been edited by LSM’s English-language service for length and focus, but if you would like to listen to the full-length episode in Latvian you can do so via the Latvian Radio link below.
Gints Grūbe: To what extent, in your opinion, does the election or the election campaign that is currently taking place in Hungary point us to ways or methods that we should think about, how Russian influence on elections is taking place or is taking shape, for example, in Latvia? Are we already seeing any possible scenarios?
Māris Zanders: Not yet. I also hope that the campaign will not be as dirty as in Hungary. To be honest, we are also in a better situation than the Hungarians, because we do not have an authoritarian regime yet. That will be after the elections.
In Hungary there is a different context. For example, we don’t have a part of the nation that lives in neighboring countries and votes strongly for the ruling party, as is the case in Hungary. Because Hungarians are in Romania and Serbia. In Vojvodina, there are strong supporters of [Viktor] Orbán, who have their own reasons. We don’t have those, and therefore direct parallels shouldn’t be drawn. But the fact that, let’s say, the immigration story could be [current], I think that’s a parallel.
In a recent debate on Latvian Television, you compared the current foreign policy context to the situation in the fall of 1939. Can you illustrate and outline what makes us think that there is a similar geopolitical context today, because in the fall of 1939, World War II had already begun.
No, in this case I’m thinking more about the fact that the big countries agreed among themselves on the division of spheres of influence, without particularly asking what the others think, and I think it’s similar now. Now you have to be careful with comparisons. You probably shouldn’t compare Germany with the USA. Although I think there are certain features of proto-fascism there. In place of the USSR there is Russia, China has emerged…
The fact that the world is being redistributed is not something I invented. The feeling about 1939 is more emotional. It’s powerlessness in a way. I think also in a way an unwillingness to talk about it and think about it, because it drives depression. So to speak – let’s not talk about it, life goes on.
What do you think the Saeima elections will be about?
I don’t know. I think it’s about personalities… Many, for example, are fed up with the current coalition… and therefore the desire to say “anything but these people” is understandable. Let them go. By that I mean that this election will be even more irrational than the previous ones.
Because usually the joke has been that at every election some kind of promisers, “riders on a white horse”, appear who are oriented towards some, say, 15–20% of voters who do not know who to vote for. The rest vote more or less according to their own ideas. What I want to say is – in my opinion, those who have known who they want to vote for up to now also come to these 15–20% – at least according to the principle of the lesser evil. That part is also in a situation of fatigue and uncertainty. This means that an even larger part of voters will act impulsively, emotionally, and this cannot be condemned, because there is no point in condemning it.
But what are the risks in this situation? Because the political process that you outlined is normal, it happens in all countries, but if we return to this geopolitical context, in such situations there are certain risks, as our country as an actor participates in that big game.
We have a significant part of the political community that believes that we should listen to or at least not speak against what the Trump administration thinks. I do not agree with those conspiracy theories that Trump is some kind of terrible Russian darling, but it is clear that the Trump administration wants economic relations with Russia and Belarus. Therefore, there is a high possibility that in power [in Latvia after the elections] there will be people, politicians, who will say: well, if Trump says that, we should not argue, because – who are we to argue with Trump?
On the other hand, logic says that if there are these economic relations with Belarus or Russia, then Russia continues to arm itself and the threat grows.
Yes, I’m not arguing against that, we’re just seeing that… [There was recently] an episode where a US diplomat was telling Lithuania not to argue with Belarus, and the Lithuanian government, represented by the prime minister, is responding that, yes, there could be a resumption of relations at the deputy prime minister level. This is actually happening, and it can only intensify.
In what way do you think “Rail Baltica” will be a hot topic? Will there be attempts to stop the further construction of this project in the context of the elections? Because we know that it is not just about how much it costs or how much is built, there are economic, political planning, defence, and geopolitical aspects.
I think that the project in the Latvian part will be used as proof of everything that is bad in this government or this coalition – if you need evidence that this coalition is no good, well, then look at “Rail Baltica”… Moreover, it is also difficult for the coalition to argue against it, because, for example, if they are accused of how long it will take to build a fence with Russia, then they can say in response that they increased defense spending. In short, there is some kind of discussion there. But there is nothing really to say in response to the accusations that “Rail Baltica” is the way it is. From the opposition’s point of view, it is a trump card, as Trump would say.
On the portal “Satori” you wrote that “groups in Latvia that hope to come to power after the Saeima elections this year are also learning from [Orbán and Fico, and] one particular party [Latvia First] and its representatives went to support Orbán and Orbán’s policies? Obviously, this positioning was also intended with regard to its own electorate or potential electorate here. Or was it not?
Well, it’s hard for me to say, because it’s clear that there are aspects of Orbán’s policy that appeal to a lot of people in Latvia, such as restricting immigration. Also, how he declared that Hungary’s interests come first, and that’s why it’s worth arguing with the rest of Europe. To be honest, I can’t really imagine how these aspects can be balanced with his friendship with the Kremlin.
But if we are talking about the immigration aspect, to what extent can the presence of these third-country nationals in Latvia be made a political issue?
It has already become that way… While Latvians didn’t go abroad, it was probably more difficult, but now you can always say – you see what Sweden has turned into! You were there yourself! You go to Paris! You see? You want the same in Rīga? That’s an ironclad argument. Moreover, it’s not some kind of attempt to tell the voter something, he has seen it with his own eyes. It’s not the same as trying to instrumentalize some issue that is foreign to the person. That’s why, I think, it’s a very effective and efficient [issue].
I just think that anyway the understanding of what constitutes immigration [is unclear]. For example, I think that many people believe that most of the Bolt couriers are Muslims. Why? Well, because they are brown. What – aren’t all brown people Muslims? Those ideas are still very vague. At the same time, this is what we are now really facing, it is no longer some theoretical possibility or something like that. So it has become a political issue, and it is everywhere… People perceive the world visually. What does it matter to me how many there are? I’m driving and I see four black people standing on the corner of Avoti and Bruņinieku streets… So it’s clear that if I see four, there are thousands of them. Isn’t that so?
We have already had similar topics, [for example] the Istanbul Convention. We see that these topics tend to be used politically by external forces.
There is no dispute about this, because – it fits well into the discourse that the Kremlin is developing – Europe (and Latvia in this case as a part of Europe) has become soft-shelled, that everyone here does it, walking in pride parades and letting thousands of Muslims in. This is the Kremlin’s narrative. The only problem is that some of these narratives simply “don’t fly”, because they are absurd. For example, the story about fascism being reborn in Latvia – I think that even people from the Russian community who live here and vote for whomever they want, understand – well, where is the fascism here? On the other hand, stories like that – for example, about “depraved Europe” and similar ones – do resonate, because they resonate with what people here recognize.
What do you think are the possible future scenarios – both bad and good – after the Saeima elections within the framework of the next Saeima election cycle.
Well, in percentage terms, I think I would say there’s a 70% [probability] there will be, let’s use the word, Orbanization. I personally create my future strategy and everything else, taking into account such a scenario. 30% is that it more or less remains as it has been until now, with all that follows from it – successes, failures, annoyances and so on. But I think that the replacement of the elite will happen. It is clear that its Orbanization will not happen in a month or two, maybe even in half a year. If you put a time frame until the next elections, the experience of Hungary and Slovakia shows that a year or two years is a long enough time to change the situation quite significantly. We also saw this in Poland, by the way.
You yourself also wrote that, it turns out, democratic institutions can be changed very quickly, unlike authoritarian ones.
Yes, there are no problems there. Courts and everything else, security services… I say that it’s basically a matter of a year, a year and a half.