– Let’s begin with Estonia: what would you say are the main national security concerns, challenges that the country is facing at the moment?
– I guess the situation is the same as in Lithuania. So we work together and try to deter our enemy, which is Russia, away. And we are doing extremely well, I guess, together and make sure that this enemy is not ending up on our territories.
– I think in another interview you have mentioned that you are certain that Russia wouldn’t attack the Baltic states in two or three years. Is that correct?
– Well, it’s very hypothetical because you can’t be certain about anything these days. But looking at what we are doing and the situation in Russia at the moment, I don’t see any possibility in the near future that Russia has a capacity to attack or do anything on our territory. Of course, we are living in a time of hybrid war, and anything can happen, but we can’t imagine that Russia will start a conventional war on our territory.
– Okay, but when you talk about the foreseeable future – what happens after those two or three years that are often mentioned? What are our realistic scenarios?
– Obviously, it’s just kind of a deadline for ourselves, that we should put more effort on our defence. So we are, both Estonia and Lithuania, putting more than five percent on defence and we are planning to do so, which is to buy the right defence equipment, especially air defence is important these days as drones are flying here and there. So I think it’s important.
– You mentioned drones and recent drone incidents. After these incidents, the Russian side has been accusing Baltic states of supposedly allowing Ukraine to use its territory for attacks against Russia. Our representatives have of course denied this, but these repeated claims from the Russian side – do you think this represents an escalation of the situation?
– No, I don’t think it is. Because it’s just a part of Russian narrative. I mean, Russia does find all the time a way to accuse – not only Baltic states but European countries in general. So, we should keep our head calm. And make sure that we do our job properly.
– Another controversy that has recently emerged in Lithuania, and I believe in Estonia as well, concerns ex-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s book. The book was published a while ago, but there has been a review, and one aspect that was emphasized there was negotiations with the Russian side over a buffer zone. How do you see that entire situation? Do you find it problematic now, and do you think it was problematic then?
– We have to keep our eyes open all the time. Discussions or considerations involving Russia and the security arrangements in the region, including the Baltic States has been around already, well, I wouldn’t say for centuries, but for dozens of years, so there’s nothing new. And I don’t think it’s Stoltenberg, who actually thought about this idea – it comes from outside and it’s just one or two sentences in his book. So everybody has their own memories and we should take it as a book and read it very carefully.
– Okay, but you said that the idea comes from outside. From where?
– Well, we don’t know, you should ask Stoltenberg because he has written the book, not me. So that’s very difficult to answer, but I don’t believe that Stoltenberg has come up with these ideas. Well, different countries, different leaders of the countries have different ideas and people discuss these different ideas.
– Do you think it’s problematic that people discuss these kinds of ideas?
– Well, we live in a world where there is a freedom of speech. And especially in our country, in Estonia, we are at the top of the freedom of speech list. So as long as people write their own name under the sentences they actually provide to the audience, it’s okay.
– In Lithuania, there has been quite a debate about these statements. Some politicians took them as nothing too serious, but there were people working in the government at that time, in 2021, who remembered that atmosphere and said that they had some information that the United States was also willing to, so to say, put the Baltic states on the table. They voiced concern that something similar could happen now, because the situation is still intense. How do you see that?
– Well, if you look back into the history, there have been multiple instances where the interests or security of smaller states, including the Baltic countries, were part of wider public discussions. And when Lithuania and Estonia joined NATO or started these negotiations, not everybody was happy, including United States. But we still managed to become members of NATO 10 years later.
Policy is always formulated through discussions. In the end, what is important is not the discussions but the end state. So you have to be very… how should I put it – make sure that you do what you want.
– Talking about NATO, it is also in a tense situation these days. I mean, United States, president Trump is threatening to exit NATO. How concerned are you about these statements?
– I think United States needs NATO as much as we do need NATO in Europe. And of course, United States puts a lot of money into this organization, and our task is to make sure that our share is getting bigger and bigger, but I don’t think we should have any separate institution next to NATO. So we should collaborate, and put more resources on our defence in Europe.
– Do you think that the Baltic states can still rely on NATO and the United States, or should we try to look more to our European partners, such as Germany or other countries?
– What we can do is to convince these countries in Europe to increase their defence contributions further, in line with higher targets. So this is what we can do in Baltic states. And it’s not that we have to rely on the US, we have to rely on the US, we have to rely on NATO, but most of all we have to rely on ourselves. That means to make sure that we have all necessary defence equipment, infrastructure, and so forth.
– Talking about this equipment and our readiness, you have mentioned air defence. How ready do you think we are for this new kind of war, the so-called drone war? And what do we need to do?
– Honest answer is, we are not completely ready, because we still have these kinds of surprises, and it’s difficult to defend [ourselves]. But we know that we need to put more on air defence: the war has changed, not only in Ukraine, but in general. These drones are not very expensive and if it’s cloudy, it’s very difficult to attack them or find them. So we have to develop new technologies to make sure we are able to defend ourselves against drones as well.
– In Lithuania, the public debate is usually rather intense when drone incidents happen, with questions about whether we are really safe if a drone can simply enter our territory. Is the same happening in Estonia?
– Of course. People are anxious and I can imagine that, if some ice comes down from the roof during winter, you get scared as well because you never know when it can end up on your head. So, of course, people are scared. But we should make sure that we develop our capabilities and especially against these drones. In Lithuania you also do have balloons. That’s why I’m saying we should work together and find our capabilities to defend ourselves.
– Do you think it is realistic to have a completely drone-proof system in the near future in the Baltic states?
– No, it’s possible, but it’s very, very expensive. We don’t have that much money, so we should set our priorities. That means what, where, and how we should defend. And it’s also about civilians: what to do when drones are falling down? I have been to Ukraine a number of times, and I know what it means. You, you hear this kind of noise, but you also do know what to do.
– Do you think it’s a new reality for our region and our countries, where you also have to know… I mean, when the war in Ukraine started, many people were still thinking: at least we are safe, we are in NATO. Now we are discussing what we are going to do and how to protect ourselves. So is this a new reality? Do you think it will change in the near future? Are we going to feel safer?
– All things are in our hands. And you mentioned drones, but these drones are not only in Baltic states. You probably know that quite a number of drones are actually developed and built in countries like Iran, or, let’s say, even maybe North Korea. So it’s not a question of this region only. It’s just the war has changed a bit, it’s not only tanks, it’s also hybrid war, drones, balloons, and so forth. And we have to get prepared to tackle this new reality.
– Europe and the United States seem to be drifting apart somewhat. Do you think we should turn more to Europe?
– We are Europe. We are Europe.
– Yes, but the Baltic states, and Estonia as well, have always been strong supporters of the United States and have tried to maintain close ties. Do you think this contact is going to last despite Trump’s rhetoric?
– You see, presidents go and come, and come and go. But the US has been our ally for quite a long time, in NATO and, and so forth. Of course we have now difficult times, to be honest… And it’s not only because of President Trump, so we need this transatlantic bond for sure, and the US probably stays our ally. Maybe not that friendly anymore, but still our ally.
– Isn’t that dangerous to have an ally that is not that friendly?
– If you think about families, you have brothers and sisters, and sometimes you do fight against each other, but we are still a family and we are brothers and sisters.
– Okay, so my last question is about our European family, then. Hungary had elections and we saw a dramatic change after 16 years of Orbán in power. How do you see that, how do you feel about it? Is it a hopeful change for Europe and the Baltic states?
– It needs time because now, we get some mixed signals from him [Peter Magyar]. So, we need to wait, we need to talk to him and to understand what he thinks and what’s the direction he is going to take. So it’s very early stage to say anything.
But in general, I prefer that we have more and more young Prime Ministers and ministers, because we need new generation, new ideas. I recently visited Holland. There is a new Prime Minister, also very anxious to do something, to make changes in Europe.
– And about Hungary, what are you going to look for? What are these decisions or signals that would be important?
– The most important is that it turns its face to other European Union countries and non-European Union countries, again. So, as I said, as you started, we are a family, and we should keep the family intact.
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