On April 27th, Deputy Defence Minister of Iran, Reza Talaei-Nik, met with Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov in Kyrgyzstan, who reinforced the Russian position that the Iran war should be resolved solely through diplomatic means and expressed his confidence in Moscow-Tehran support. Talaei-Nik then traveled to Belarus, a close Russian ally, where he met with Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The ministers reinforced the idea that the end of the conflict should come through a so-called “political-diplomatic settlement” and said the meeting confirmed the joint interests of Minsk and Tehran to deepen ties and cooperation in order to combat the United States.
Back in Russia, President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, where he praised the will of the Iranian people to fight for continued independence amidst US-Israeli pressure. Putin detailed that Russia would do all it could to aid Iran. Between the US and Iran, peace talks have stalled following President Donald Trump’s cancellation of a trip to Pakistan due to thoughts that Iran was not conceding enough to US requests. Iran reinforced the unwillingness to cooperate initiated by the United States by detailing that they are not willing to negotiate under threat of military action. Araqchi also expressed his reservations about the process due to Iran’s stance that they have yet to see if the US truly wants to pursue diplomatic avenues to solve the conflict. Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Steven Cook has stated that both Trump and Iran both believe they are winning the conflict; Trump refuses to lift the blockade due to Iran’s refusal of peace-plan terms and hopes Iran will be squeezed enough into complicity, but thus far, Iran has held strong.
Russia and Belarus’ public calls for diplomatic negotiations come alongside deepened defense ties with Iran, which stands as a contradictory barrier to peace. Deepened defense ties do not allude to peace, but rather it alludes to a military alliance under the guise of diplomatic rhetoric. Russian and Belarusian commitments to support Iran will inherently prolong the conflict. This prolonged conflict poses great difficulty to civilians, who often receive the brunt of any conflict. Due to the Middle East’s critical role in global energy markets, the conflict is causing prices to skyrocket, making goods more expensive worldwide. Roughly, a quarter of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. US blockades and Iranian closures produce a chokehold that will have great difficulty in being released.
The current ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan on April 7, where the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Talks have focused on the Iranian nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and a lasting peace agreement. Despite the current ceasefire in place, both the US and Iran have violated it. Iran’s military arsenal has been greatly weakened since the conflict commenced. This weakness is producing Iranian willingness to negotiate despite the said ceasefire violations. Along with US violations, Russian support for Iran is interfering with the US’s commitment to the continued peace talks.
Despite the use of diplomatic language, the increased military ties that resulted from Talaei-Nik’s travels to Moscow and Minsk present the idea that Iran is preparing for a failed diplomatic process. The delayed peace talks and ceasefire violations greatly decrease the likelihood of lasting peace while costing civilians worldwide. Peace cannot come through simultaneous military alliances in anticipation of failure; this choice has deep consequences for peace and will ultimately prolong conflict. A true commitment to a diplomatic process must come without reliance on a military back-up plan.