On Tuesday, May 12, 2026, crude futures were relatively steady in the wake of what looked like a sustained truce between the US and Iran, which has now been in place for more than a month, and with shipping resuming through the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire has seemingly lifted the immediate geopolitical overhang over oil prices, which had contributed to a spike in prices in the March and early April. Now that the threat of a full-scale regional war has abated, the energy market can return to focusing on more traditional fundamentals such as supply, demand, and inventory data.
WTI and Brent are trading as the global picture is becoming clear. There are no major disruptions to the supply flow from any of the oil-producing areas. US supply levels are relatively high while OPEC+ is slowly bringing back its production and repairs are underway in the affected area. The truce is holding, but the supply situation is far from back to normal.