A large section of a Space X Falcon 9 rocket is due to smash into the Moon in August 2026.
That’s according to an astronomer who has predicted the onward trajectory of the rocket section as it orbits Earth.
Calculations reveal the rocket will hit the Moon near the Einstein crater, which is just about visible around the 10 o’clock region on the edge of the Earth-facing side of the Moon.
Apollo 11 blasts-off atop a Saturn V rocket. Credit: NASA
A rocket upper stage vs the Moon
The piece of rocketry in question is the upper stage section of a Space X Falcon 9 rocket, according to Bill Gray of the astronomy website Project Pluto, who made the prediction.
The upper stage of a rocket like the Falcon 9 is the top section, which carries the payload – be that a science instrument, satellite or crewed capsule – into orbit.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in the sky with a crescent Moon, 10 July 2024. Credit: George Rose/Getty Images
Rockets are built in detachable stages so that, as the rocket burns through its fuel during launch, it can dump empty fuel compartments and other pieces of dead weight, lightening its load and increasing fuel efficiency.
Gray says he’s calculated that the Falcon 9 upper stage is from the mission that launched the Blue Ghost and Hakuto-R landers to the Moon on 15 January 2025.
It’s been orbiting Earth ever since.
Launch of the SpaceX Falcon 9 on 15 January 2025. Credit: NASA/Frank Michaux
What we know about the impact
“In September 2025, my software for computing orbits analyzed the observations and projected an impact with the moon on 2026 August 5,” says Gray in a post on the Project Pluto website.
While Gray says he’s confident in his calculations, he does note the eventual impact site could differ slightly from the predicted site.
Gray says the Falcon 9 upper stage is due to hit the Moon on 5 August 2026 at 06:44 UTC and will be travelling at about 5,400 miles an hour (8,700 km an hour) when it impacts.
Image showing the location of Crater Einstein on the Moon. Credit: Pete Lawrence
Because the Moon is tidally locked with Earth, we always see the same side of the Moon from the ground.
The Falcon 9 is due to hit right on the edge of the Earth-facing side of the Moon, Gray says, around the 10 o’clock mark.
At the time of impact, parts of North and South America will be basked in nighttime and the Moon will be above the horizon for observers in that region of the world.
The phase of the Moon on this date will be just before last quarter, meaning the ‘left’ portion of the Moon – as seen from the Northern Hemisphere – will be illuminated, and so-too will the impact site.
However, it’s not likely that the impact will be visible from Earth using amateur observing equipment.
A computer-generated image of space debris orbiting Earth. Credit: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, photo gallery
Danger and space junk
While the impact of the Falcon 9 rocket into the surface of the Moon will not cause any danger, Gray does point out in his article that the event highlights the growing issue around space junk.
‘Space junk’ is the name given to rocket debris, defunct satellites and other human-made objects that are in orbit around Earth.
Many scientists argue that the growing mass of space junk around Earth could make it harder in future to launch satellites and other spacecraft.
It could also lead to a situation known as ‘Kessler syndrome’, in which colliding pieces of space junk cause a cascading effect of increased debris around our planet.