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MP Materials (MP) stock has been pulled in two directions, with fresh US-China rare earth trade signals and insider selling weighing on sentiment, even as new Apple and U.S. Department of Defense partnerships reshape its long term supply role.
See our latest analysis for MP Materials.
The recent 1-day share price return of 4.41% and 7-day share price return of 5.21% at a US$64.46 share price come after a 30-day share price return that fell 6.84%. However, the 90-day share price return of 16.48% and a very large 1-year total shareholder return of 227.37% indicate momentum that has cooled in the near term rather than disappeared.
If you are tracking how rare earth sentiment is moving beyond MP Materials, it may be worth scanning a broader set of producers through our 28 best rare earth metal stocks
So with MP trading at US$64.46, sitting on a very large 1 year return and screens suggesting a sizeable intrinsic discount, are you looking at an underappreciated rare earth supplier or a stock where markets already price in potential future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 26.8% Overvalued
According to the most followed narrative, MP Materials has a fair value of $50.85, which sits below the last close at $64.46 and frames the current rare earth enthusiasm as fully reflected in the price.
The market is currently pricing MP as a mining company, ignoring its imminent transformation into a high-margin industrial manufacturer. The “10X Facility” partnership with the Department of Defense (DoD) is presented as fundamentally de-risking the downside while providing substantial potential upside.
This raises the question of what justifies paying today’s price for a company that is still loss making yet modeled for high margins, heavy revenue expansion and a future valuation multiple more often seen in mature manufacturers rather than miners.
Result: Fair Value of $50.85 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this upbeat scenario leans heavily on user assumptions about 2030 revenue, margins and P/E, so any stumble in magnet ramp up or DoD volumes could quickly challenge it.
Find out about the key risks to this MP Materials narrative.
Another View: DCF Points in the Opposite Direction
While the most popular narrative sees MP Materials as 26.8% overvalued at a fair value of $50.85, the SWS DCF model points in the other direction, suggesting the stock is trading 55.8% below its fair value estimate of $145.90. Which story do you think better fits the risk you want to take?
To understand how this cash flow based view is built and what would need to go right for it to hold, you can walk through the full calculation using the Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
MP Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out MP Materials for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With sentiment clearly split between risk and reward, now is the moment to review the numbers yourself and decide how comfortable you are with both sides. To see the full mix of concerns and potential upsides that others are focused on, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MP.
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