TORONTO — Canada’s ambassador to the United States is trying to lower the temperature around the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement with the renewal date for the North American trade pact just a few weeks away.
“Everybody take a deep breath, relax, it’s all going to be OK,” Ambassador Mark Wiseman told a business crowd in Toronto on Monday.
Wiseman was interviewed by Darryl White, the Bank of Montreal’s CEO and a member of the advisory council on Canada-U.S. relations, at the Canadian Club Toronto.
Looming in the background of Monday’s talk was the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement on trade, better known as CUSMA, which enters a renewal period starting July 1.
Wiseman tried to put that date into context for the audience.
July 1 does not mark the expiration of CUSMA. It’s the start of a renewal window, he said, which gives the three parties a chance to iron out irritants and the option to renew the pact for another 16-year period.
CUSMA is set to expire in 2036 but a renewal would extend that expiration to 2042. If the parties don’t agree to a renewal, CUSMA will be subject to an annual rolling review for up to 10 years.
“It doesn’t matter if we work through those issues and conclude that review on July the 2nd or conclude that review in January, or if we never, frankly, conclude the review,” Wiseman said. “The base case is that the agreement remains in place through ’til 2036.”
U.S. President Donald Trump has openly mused about walking away from the deal he negotiated in his first term. Wiseman noted the United States could have triggered the exit clause with six months’ notice at any point — not just after the July 1 date.
He also pointed to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer saying the United States wants to preserve the “pillars” of CUSMA as another reason to avoid panic over the fate of the trade pact.
The vast majority of Canadian exports to the United States have so far been protected from Trump’s blanket tariffs because they’re in compliance with CUSMA. But the trade agreement has not exempted Canadian steel, aluminum and autos from the steep duties imposed under Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act.
Wiseman said those tariffs are “biting” the Canadian economy and are the current focus of Canada’s negotiating team in Washington.
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said last week that he expects to see bilateral agreements negotiated with the United States, “adjacent” to CUSMA. If those agreements resolve outstanding issues, that might open the door to an extension of the trade pact, he said.