Before diving in, let’s revisit the quote from June 17:

“(…) One more thing worth remembering…

Friday’s close below the lower border of the red declining channel activated a bearish scenario with a minimum downside target around 76, just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire bull market that started last year.

Therefore, in our opinion, another downswing toward that target remains a realistic possibility in the coming sessions – especially since daily indicators still haven’t generated any meaningful buy signals. (…)”

Brent followed our bearish roadmap almost perfectly. Not only did sellers reach our downside target, but they also managed to push price even lower.

The warning signs actually appeared earlier.

Despite last week’s rebound, buyers failed to reclaim the previously broken lower boundary of the black descending channel.

That weakness was followed by a classic bearish engulfing pattern at the beginning of this week, giving sellers fresh momentum and confirming that the path of least resistance remained lower.

Wednesday added even more fuel to the bearish story.

A fresh bearish gap between 76.38-76.80 attracted another wave of selling, ultimately completing the downside scenario we outlined earlier this week (congratulations to everyone who trusted the setup and locked in profits!).

Now Brent has reached one of the most important technical areas on the entire chart.

Price is testing the lower boundary of the large bullish gap from March (72.87-81.57) while also sitting near the previously broken late-July 2025 highs.

Once again, daily indicators are beginning to flash bullish divergences, suggesting downside momentum is gradually weakening.

But traders shouldn’t get ahead of themselves.

If bears manage to finish today’s session – and this week’s candle – below this support zone, the next downside targets around 70 or even 67.50-68.20 could quickly come into focus.

So, what would be the first sign that buyers are finally fighting back?

A daily close above 76.80 (successfully filling this week’s bearish gaps), which would be the first meaningful technical victory for the bulls.

Today’s Takeaway

For WTI:

Watch 67.02-70.00 support zone
Daily close above 71.92 -> first bullish confirmation, which could open room for a bigger recovery
Daily close below 67.02 -> increases odds of a move toward 65
Bullish divergences are appearing, but confirmation is still required

For Brent:

Watch 72.87 key support
Daily close above 76.80 -> first bullish confirmation, which could open room for a bigger recovery
Daily close below 72.87 -> increases downside risk toward 70.00 or even 67.50-68.20
Bullish divergences suggest sellers are losing momentum, but price still needs to confirm the reversal

Final Thought

Strong trends rarely end because the price simply stops falling. They usually end because momentum fades first, and that’s exactly what we’re beginning to see in crude oil.

Bullish divergences don’t tell us that a reversal has already begun, but they do tell us it’s time to stop blindly chasing the trend. The next opportunity won’t belong to the fastest trader. It will belong to the most patient one who waits for the price to confirm what momentum is already whispering.

Stay disciplined, stay selective, and wait for clean setups.
Anna