As business leaders review midyear performance, boards and executives report ongoing volatility across geopolitics, AI and new technologies, economics, and people risk.
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As business leaders review midyear performance, boards and executives report ongoing volatility across geopolitics, AI and new technologies, economics, and people risk. Here’s how 2026 trend predictions are tracking as leaders balance growth and risk.
Tracking 2026 TrendsGeopolitical risk and disruption create a different “new normal.” Tracking, as predicted. At the outset of 2026, leaders expected ongoing uncertainty driven by interconnected risks. In the first half of 2026, risks included ongoing and new wars, gray zone attacks, shipping and global supply chain challenges, climate events, changes in trade conditions and tariffs, country-level rules and regulations, market shifts, property peril, infrastructure instability, cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, commodity prices, and employee and executive security. WTW’s 2026 Global Directors’ and Officers’ Survey shows geopolitical risks have increased across most regions. Boards and senior executives continue to mitigate risks where possible, change plans when necessary and prepare teams to act quickly and decisively when events occur, knowing that not all perils can be avoided. Labor markets and inflation stabilize, but people risks remain at the forefront. More volatile than anticipated. Labor markets have been more volatile than expected across many countries. In the U.S., for example, the employee quit rate has continued to fall and remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Hire rates decreased in April, comparable to the lowest hire rate since April 2020. Inflation has been more volatile than expected in many developed countries, remaining far from desired levels. In May, it was 2.8% in the UK, 4.2% in the U.S., and 3.2% in Canada and the Eurozone. Leaders in many sectors focused on earnings protection rather than growth, reducing hiring to rein in rising labor costs, including pay, healthcare and retirement. Hiring slowdowns largely reflected businesses funding significant investments in AI with aggregated hiring savings as opposed to replacing specific jobs with AI (which may come later). Employee risk aversion and “job hugging” reduced turnover and job openings. According to WTW’s 2026 Global Benefits Attitudes Survey, far fewer employees are looking to leave their jobs this year than in previous years. Boards and senior leaders understand that adding new talent while engaging healthy and productive employees with the right skills remains essential to long-term competitiveness and growth. Companies improve scenario planning amidst disruption. Tracking, as predicted. As interdependent disruption continues, boards and c-suites are increasing their scenario planning proficiency to better predict and manage change. Tabletop exercises are now more common in board rooms and conference rooms in 2026, enhancing both growth and risk management. The AI “arms race” continues. Tracking, as predicted, with a twist. While many observers feared a tech industry slow-down, both major tech leaders and smaller or emerging players continued to grow through AI adoption and expansion, fighting for prominence in the ecosystem. Yet surprises in AI consumption and usage costs, due to shifts in tokenization and other pricing changes, prompted some companies to review their AI adoption pace and strategy in the spring of 2026. Interest in sovereign AI systems expanded as nations sought technological independence, but more slowly than anticipated. Boards and c-suite leaders are using early learnings in AI adoption to refine their goals, expectations and requirements for AI and other new technologies. AI and robotics permeate daily life (and create potential backlash). Tracking, as predicted, generally. Widespread AI adoption continued to streamline tasks, enhance productivity and personalize user experiences. Robotics returned to mainstream discussions, as advances in AI addressed earlier usability issues. Backlash to AI and robotics grew in many countries, with an unanticipated level of criticism by Generation Z consumers and employees regarding job, economic and energy/environmental impact. According to 2026 research by Pew Research Center, many users, including younger adults, are deeply skeptical of AI despite about half of U.S. adults report using AI chatbots, about a third say they have a smart device at home, 40% have smart watches and 60% read AI summaries of search results. Boards and executive teams continue to find opportunities to augment their companies through technology while protecting their brands and reputations from potential backlash to AI and robotics. AI energy availability and consumption become more acute. Tracking, as predicted. Board members and senior leaders increasingly identified electricity and water to be constraints on AI development and application during the first half of 2026 as data center construction, regulations and capacity were regular in the news. Willis Research Network reported approaches companies can take to solve the AI energy dilemma. Boards and senior leaders increased their consideration of energy costs and constraints in AI adoption plans and priorities.Data remains a competitive advantage, not a commodity.Tracking, as predicted. Data constraints are increasingly limiting AI adoption in the first half of 2026, as challenges continued with accessing, ingesting, cleaning and protecting data. Concurrently, data availability, ownership rights, regulatory and governance rules and cyber/data security remained top of mind. Even the most sophisticated AI tools and agents could not perform as intended without the right data. Boards and senior leaders recognize they need significant quantities of accurate, secure, ingestible and analyzable data for AI to yield a meaningful return. AI liability becomes a more pressing issue: Tracking, as predicted. As AI adoption expanded in 2026, boards and c-suites questioned accountability, liability, insurability and broader risk management. Resulting legal, regulatory and technical frameworks evolved. Companies continued to experience new perils as AI advanced and insurers continued to adapt. While AI-related risks generally are covered implicitly under traditional insurance policies, ambiguity persists (no single policy covers all AI perils and many policies are silent on AI). Insurers continued to clarify AI coverage by introducing endorsements that affirm coverage for certain AI risks or by adding exclusions to standard policies to avoid unanticipated exposure. As AI reshapes risk and liability, boards and senior leaders strengthen governance, insurance decisions and monitoring to manage risk in a changing legal and regulatory landscape.The AI/human partnership is better understood: Tracking, as predicted, generally. As AI adoption continued in the first half of 2026, the false choice of AI or humans became clear (both are required). In AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces, BCG’s Henderson Institute forecasted that over the next two to three years, AI will reshape 50% to 55% of U.S. jobs and create less job loss than many highly publicized estimates. Microsoft’s 2026 Work Trend Index Annual Report noted that while some jobs will be eliminated, new ones will emerge and others will change. Microsoft found the most important skills amid AI adoption are reviewing AI output and critical thinking, “as execution becomes more scalable, the premium on judgement rises.” Similarly, BCG concluded that roles depending on nuanced interpretation of emotional and social cues, trust, persuasion and contextual judgment are more likely to be augmented by AI than automated. Boards and senior leaders understand that AI is changing how work is done, automating routine tasks while increasing the need for human judgment and decision-making.Companies refine hybrid and in-person work models: Tracking, as predicted. Even as the return to offices stabilized in early 2026, real estate and job data showed material differences in work practices across regions, countries and cities. Companies continued to refine their work models, as leaders monitored productivity and employee wellbeing closely. Many are implementing new talent strategies and increasing focus on culture and employee experience, as well as on the transformation of pay, benefits and career programs to support the new work models.
Amid multiple dynamics, leaders continuously recalibrate to balance near‑term financial and market pressure with long‑term bets on AI‑driven transformation.