Canadian leisure travel to the US fell 3.3%, but business flights climbed 4.8% as trade war intensifies

Business travel

Many Canadians say they are cutting back on trips to the US, according to new data from Statistics Canada, which shows travel was down 3.3% in the first quarter of 2026. However, that boycott mood hasn’t shown up in the numbers for business travel.

New booking data from Corporate Traveller Canada shows business air travel to the US rose 4.8% year over year between January and July 2026. This increase occurred even as the political relationship between the two countries grew more strained — Ottawa recently announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the US as a new trade war heats up.

For Canadian companies with customers, suppliers or operations south of the border, the reason is straightforward: a trade dispute doesn’t dissolve a business relationship the way it may cancel a vacation.

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Chris Lynes, managing director of Corporate Traveller Canada, told Money.ca that leisure travel and business travel respond to disparate pressures. “Business travel is different from leisure. You can change a vacation fairly easily, but if you have a customer, supplier or operation in the US, that relationship doesn’t just disappear,” he said.

That distinction shows up in the monthly numbers. After dipping 1.4% in February and 3.2% in March, US-bound business bookings climbed 9.6% in April, 10.3% in May and 10.6% in June, before easing to a 5.6% increase in July, compared with the same months a year earlier.

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Which industries are still crossing the border

Not every sector is travelling to the US at the same pace. Lynes points to manufacturing, finance and banking, technology and mining as the industries showing the most consistent demand for US business trips. For small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in these fields, the US often remains an essential customer, supplier or operating market — something a political dispute is unlikely to change quickly.

Capacity is shifting even though demand isn’t

While bookings have held up, airlines have been more cautious. Capacity on US routes from Canada fell 10.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, even as capacity to Europe, Asia and within Canada increased over the same period. By the third quarter, US capacity was growing again, but at a slower pace than domestic, European and Asian routes.

For business travellers, that gap between steady demand and shrinking capacity can mean fewer flight options, less schedule flexibility and, in some cases, higher fares — even if a company’s underlying relationship with the US hasn’t changed.

Should Canadian SMEs change how they travel?

Lynes cautions against reading too much into a few months of data. “It’s too early to know, and we don’t want to call a trend before the data shows one.” He adds that Corporate Traveller Canada is watching for three signals that would point to a real shift: businesses travelling less overall, becoming more selective about which trips are worth taking or changing how far in advance they book.

What to do now if your business relies on US travel

For SMEs that have business ties to the US, the trade dispute doesn’t remove the need to manage those relationships in person. It can change how that travel gets planned. A few practical steps:

Book further ahead where possible, since reduced capacity on some US routes can mean fewer seats and higher last-minute fares

Prioritize trips tied to revenue-generating relationships, such as key customers or suppliers, over discretionary travel

Build in flexibility, since fares and schedules may grow more volatile if capacity keeps shifting

Track trends on the specific routes your business uses regularly, rather than relying on general headlines about the trade dispute

The data suggests Canadian businesses are compartmentalizing — pulling back on discretionary US spending while still showing up in person where the relationship demands it. As Lynes puts it, companies are “operating in a more uncertain environment, but they still need to get business done.” For now, the smartest move for most SMEs isn’t necessarily to cut US travel — it’s to plan it more deliberately.

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This article originally appeared on Money.ca under the title: Canadian leisure travel to the US fell 3.3%, but business flights climbed 4.8% as trade war intensifies

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.