Germany is buying much less Russian natural gas than it did six months ago. Another country is now the largest supplier. Where is the gas coming from now – and what will it be like in the future?
Whether Norway, Qatar, Israel or the Netherlands – for weeks now, German politicians, above all German Economics Minister Robert Habeck, and German energy managers have been on a “shopping spree”. They are desperately looking for alternative energy suppliers to meet the continuing high demand for gas and to replace Russian natural gas. The German government plans to spend several billion euros in the energy crisis to compensate as far as possible for the negative consequences of sharply reduced Russian gas supplies.According to the “Third Energy Security Progress Report,” 26 percent of the natural gas imported by Germany still came from Russia at the end of June. Due to the maintenance of Nord Stream 1, which lasted several days, and the renewed gas curtailment, the share has now even fallen to below ten percent. Before the Ukraine war, it was still more than 50 percent. The loss of Russian volumes has recently been offset by higher supplies from Norway and the Netherlands.
**Norway supplies much more gas than Russia**
According to the latest statistics, Norway has now replaced Russia as Germany’s largest gas importer. In August, its share climbed to 38.3 percent. This is according to figures from the Association of European Transmission System Operators for Gas ENTSOG and the Association of Transmission System Operators for Gas FNB.
Since the summer, Norway has expanded its supplies. “Norway now accounts for about 26 percent of European gas demand, filling the Russian gas gap,” said energy analyst Andreas Schröder of ICIS. Norway is also supplying slightly more to Germany than before, he added. “Its share of all German gas imports was last around 40 percent in July,” Schröder determined. “Norway currently supplies Europe with as much as its production capacities allow,” explains Andreas Goldthau, an energy security expert at the University of Erfurt.
**Netherlands second largest German gas supplier**
Germany’s third most important source of gas has so far been the Netherlands. According to ENTSOG, they contributed 21.2 percent of Germany’s gas demand in June. In August – due to reduced Russian gas volumes in Nord Stream 1 – the share rose further to 24.1 percent. This makes the Netherlands the second most important source country for German gas imports.
The Netherlands could theoretically increase production volumes in Groningen even more, says expert Goldthau. However, this is not (yet) politically feasible because there is great resistance among the population. The world’s once largest gas field in Groningen, near the German-Dutch border, was actually scheduled to cease operations this fall because of an increased incidence of small earthquakes and damage to homes in the region following drilling. However, due to the energy emergency, the government in The Hague has now extended operations. The Groningen field is now scheduled to run at least until October 2023.In addition, Germany also obtains a small portion of its natural gas from Belgium. However, the natural gas imported via border crossing points often cannot be clearly assigned to individual countries of origin. The reason for this is the sometimes tightly meshed nature of the European pipeline network, which causes natural gas of different origins to mix, according to the German Gas and Water Industry Association (BDEW).
**Only five percent of German gas is produced here**
Hardly any gas comes from Germany itself. Domestic gas production has been cut back significantly – due to dwindling reserves and increasingly complex approval procedures. While 21 percent of gas was produced in Germany in 2001, it now accounts for just over five percent of the country’s gas consumption. Discussions are currently underway as to whether and how this share can be increased. For example, there are plans to tap a new field in the North Sea. However, the traffic light coalition in Berlin has spoken out against further exploration of the North Sea. The increased use of fracking recommended by some experts is also meeting with resistance from politicians.In the medium term, the greatest potential for new gas sources lies in LNG, liquefied natural gas transported by ship under high pressure. So far, Germany has mainly imported LNG from the United States. “The U.S. has become the world’s largest LNG exporter this year, and it has been supplying Europe in particular,” says energy expert Hans-Werner Schiffer.
**LNG as a beacon of hope**
In the future, LNG supplies are to be significantly diversified. There are talks with Qatar, Australia, Algeria and Nigeria. Germany could also obtain LNG from Canada in the future. However, no quick solution is to be expected here because there are as yet no LNG export terminals on the Canadian east coast. In the short term, however, with the help of the other supplier countries, about one-third of the Russian gas volume could be replaced by LNG, experts estimate. The liquefied gas would arrive via ports in the Netherlands and Belgium and then be fed into the natural gas network. It will then reach Germany via the European pipeline network. “German gas imports from Belgium and the Netherlands are already largely regasified LNG from the seaports of Rotterdam and Zeebrugge,” says energy analyst Schröder. According to Schröder, Belgium and the Netherlands currently account for about 20 percent of German gas imports.Germany does not yet have its own LNG terminals. But that is set to change soon. As early as this coming winter, two floating LNG terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel are to be operational. Further loading points are to follow.
**Azerbaijan as a new gas supplier?**
The EU is also working flat out to find new gas suppliers. Brussels representatives have held talks with the USA, Qatar, Norway, Algeria and Israel. Azerbaijan has agreed to expand its supply volumes by 50 percent.If a gas crisis occurs in Europe next winter, EU countries can support each other. The SOS regulation provides for possible bilateral solidarity agreements. So far, however, hardly any such agreements have been concluded. Germany has only signed agreements with energy self-sufficient Denmark and with Austria. In view of the experience from the Corona crisis, however, it is questionable whether the EU states will really help each other in the crisis or whether each will secure its own supply.
**Other EU countries even more independent of Russian gas**
In fact, some EU countries have already become independent of Russian gas faster than Germany. Italy, for example, has signed gas supply agreements with Algeria, Qatar and Azerbaijan. As a result, the share of Russian gas imports fell to 21 percent of Italy’s energy needs.Spain and Portugal are in an even better position; they are largely independent of Russian gas and even supply gas to other EU countries. Spain is playing an increasingly important role in the European LNG market. The Iberian peninsula is home to six LNG terminals. France has also made provisions. The “grande nation” has three LNG terminals. So far, France imports most of its natural gas from Norway – via a direct North Sea pipeline to Dunkerque. Denmark and Sweden are largely self-sufficient in energy.
It’s time to reconsider the termination of the Groningen field. If Europe wants to be independent of outside gas supplies we need the Groningen field until we transitioned to more sustainable sources. I understand this comes with great consequences for my fellow countrymen in Groningen, so generous compensation should be a prerequisite. Shouldn’t be a problem given the current gas prices.
Hooray, we’re not buying from Russia, we’re buying gas from Azerbaijan (that is buying gas from Russia). Hope that’s not the scenario it will play out.
3 comments
Russland = **Russia**
Niederlande = **Netherlands**
Norwegen = **Norway**
Sonstige Länder = **Other countries**
Inländische Förderung = **Domestic production**
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source: https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/gaslieferungen-deutschland-101.html
**Where Germany now gets its gas**
Germany is buying much less Russian natural gas than it did six months ago. Another country is now the largest supplier. Where is the gas coming from now – and what will it be like in the future?
Whether Norway, Qatar, Israel or the Netherlands – for weeks now, German politicians, above all German Economics Minister Robert Habeck, and German energy managers have been on a “shopping spree”. They are desperately looking for alternative energy suppliers to meet the continuing high demand for gas and to replace Russian natural gas. The German government plans to spend several billion euros in the energy crisis to compensate as far as possible for the negative consequences of sharply reduced Russian gas supplies.According to the “Third Energy Security Progress Report,” 26 percent of the natural gas imported by Germany still came from Russia at the end of June. Due to the maintenance of Nord Stream 1, which lasted several days, and the renewed gas curtailment, the share has now even fallen to below ten percent. Before the Ukraine war, it was still more than 50 percent. The loss of Russian volumes has recently been offset by higher supplies from Norway and the Netherlands.
**Norway supplies much more gas than Russia**
According to the latest statistics, Norway has now replaced Russia as Germany’s largest gas importer. In August, its share climbed to 38.3 percent. This is according to figures from the Association of European Transmission System Operators for Gas ENTSOG and the Association of Transmission System Operators for Gas FNB.
Since the summer, Norway has expanded its supplies. “Norway now accounts for about 26 percent of European gas demand, filling the Russian gas gap,” said energy analyst Andreas Schröder of ICIS. Norway is also supplying slightly more to Germany than before, he added. “Its share of all German gas imports was last around 40 percent in July,” Schröder determined. “Norway currently supplies Europe with as much as its production capacities allow,” explains Andreas Goldthau, an energy security expert at the University of Erfurt.
**Netherlands second largest German gas supplier**
Germany’s third most important source of gas has so far been the Netherlands. According to ENTSOG, they contributed 21.2 percent of Germany’s gas demand in June. In August – due to reduced Russian gas volumes in Nord Stream 1 – the share rose further to 24.1 percent. This makes the Netherlands the second most important source country for German gas imports.
The Netherlands could theoretically increase production volumes in Groningen even more, says expert Goldthau. However, this is not (yet) politically feasible because there is great resistance among the population. The world’s once largest gas field in Groningen, near the German-Dutch border, was actually scheduled to cease operations this fall because of an increased incidence of small earthquakes and damage to homes in the region following drilling. However, due to the energy emergency, the government in The Hague has now extended operations. The Groningen field is now scheduled to run at least until October 2023.In addition, Germany also obtains a small portion of its natural gas from Belgium. However, the natural gas imported via border crossing points often cannot be clearly assigned to individual countries of origin. The reason for this is the sometimes tightly meshed nature of the European pipeline network, which causes natural gas of different origins to mix, according to the German Gas and Water Industry Association (BDEW).
**Only five percent of German gas is produced here**
Hardly any gas comes from Germany itself. Domestic gas production has been cut back significantly – due to dwindling reserves and increasingly complex approval procedures. While 21 percent of gas was produced in Germany in 2001, it now accounts for just over five percent of the country’s gas consumption. Discussions are currently underway as to whether and how this share can be increased. For example, there are plans to tap a new field in the North Sea. However, the traffic light coalition in Berlin has spoken out against further exploration of the North Sea. The increased use of fracking recommended by some experts is also meeting with resistance from politicians.In the medium term, the greatest potential for new gas sources lies in LNG, liquefied natural gas transported by ship under high pressure. So far, Germany has mainly imported LNG from the United States. “The U.S. has become the world’s largest LNG exporter this year, and it has been supplying Europe in particular,” says energy expert Hans-Werner Schiffer.
**LNG as a beacon of hope**
In the future, LNG supplies are to be significantly diversified. There are talks with Qatar, Australia, Algeria and Nigeria. Germany could also obtain LNG from Canada in the future. However, no quick solution is to be expected here because there are as yet no LNG export terminals on the Canadian east coast. In the short term, however, with the help of the other supplier countries, about one-third of the Russian gas volume could be replaced by LNG, experts estimate. The liquefied gas would arrive via ports in the Netherlands and Belgium and then be fed into the natural gas network. It will then reach Germany via the European pipeline network. “German gas imports from Belgium and the Netherlands are already largely regasified LNG from the seaports of Rotterdam and Zeebrugge,” says energy analyst Schröder. According to Schröder, Belgium and the Netherlands currently account for about 20 percent of German gas imports.Germany does not yet have its own LNG terminals. But that is set to change soon. As early as this coming winter, two floating LNG terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel are to be operational. Further loading points are to follow.
**Azerbaijan as a new gas supplier?**
The EU is also working flat out to find new gas suppliers. Brussels representatives have held talks with the USA, Qatar, Norway, Algeria and Israel. Azerbaijan has agreed to expand its supply volumes by 50 percent.If a gas crisis occurs in Europe next winter, EU countries can support each other. The SOS regulation provides for possible bilateral solidarity agreements. So far, however, hardly any such agreements have been concluded. Germany has only signed agreements with energy self-sufficient Denmark and with Austria. In view of the experience from the Corona crisis, however, it is questionable whether the EU states will really help each other in the crisis or whether each will secure its own supply.
**Other EU countries even more independent of Russian gas**
In fact, some EU countries have already become independent of Russian gas faster than Germany. Italy, for example, has signed gas supply agreements with Algeria, Qatar and Azerbaijan. As a result, the share of Russian gas imports fell to 21 percent of Italy’s energy needs.Spain and Portugal are in an even better position; they are largely independent of Russian gas and even supply gas to other EU countries. Spain is playing an increasingly important role in the European LNG market. The Iberian peninsula is home to six LNG terminals. France has also made provisions. The “grande nation” has three LNG terminals. So far, France imports most of its natural gas from Norway – via a direct North Sea pipeline to Dunkerque. Denmark and Sweden are largely self-sufficient in energy.
It’s time to reconsider the termination of the Groningen field. If Europe wants to be independent of outside gas supplies we need the Groningen field until we transitioned to more sustainable sources. I understand this comes with great consequences for my fellow countrymen in Groningen, so generous compensation should be a prerequisite. Shouldn’t be a problem given the current gas prices.
Hooray, we’re not buying from Russia, we’re buying gas from Azerbaijan (that is buying gas from Russia). Hope that’s not the scenario it will play out.