We’re down to the
final eight at AFCON
2025, so it’s time we checked in again with the Opta
supercomputer to see the latest predictor
numbers.
It has been a fascinating Africa Cup of Nations, with another
three rounds still to go.
The only slightly disappointing aspect for the neutral is that
there hasn’t been much in the way of upsets, but that does mean we
are in for a star-studded quarter-final stage.
Hosts Morocco and the current holders, Côte d’Ivoire, remain,
with the quarter-final lineup featuring many of the best teams in
Africa.
The
Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament predictions have held up
well, with eight of the nine most-fancied countries still standing.
Only Tunisia (sixth favourites) have been eliminated, and that was
at the hands of Mali (eighth favourites) in the last 16 on
penalties.
So, ahead of the last eight at AFCON 2025, we wanted to check in
again with the supercomputer to see the latest predictor
numbers.
Who Will
Win AFCON 2025?
Hosts Morocco remain the favourites, lifting
their first AFCON since 1976 in 23.3% of the supercomputer’s
simulations.
Walid Regragui’s side are still unbeaten at their home
tournament (W3 D1) and overcame Tanzania 1-0 in the last 16 thanks
to a goal from Real Madrid’s Brahim
Díaz, who is this edition’s top scorer (four goals).
Their defensive solidity has been key, conceding just once – a
penalty against Mali – while their 18 shots faced is comfortably
the fewest of any team in the tournament, at least nine fewer than
anyone else.
Senegal are second favourites to win AFCON 2025
(16.6%), having been third behind Egypt in our pre-tournament
predictions.
The Lions of Teranga have also won three and drawn one in
Morocco, most recently beating Sudan 3-1 in the round of 16. Only
Nigeria (12) have scored more goals than Senegal (10) at the
tournament, with a Pape
Gueye brace helping them advance in the last round.
Algeria, like Morocco, have built their
campaign on a solid defence. They have also conceded just one goal,
and they overcame a tough last-16 tie with DR Congo 1-0 thanks to a
brilliant Adil Boulbina strike in the last minute of extra-time
proving the difference.
Vladimir Petkovic’s side are third favourites to win the whole
thing with the supercomputer, lifting the trophy in 13.9% of
sims.
Arguably the most impressive team have been
Nigeria, especially in their 4-0 dismantling of
Mozambique in the round of 16.
The Super Eagles are the top scorers at the tournament (12
goals). They have never scored more goals in a single edition of
the competition (also scored 12 in 2000), and in Ademola
Lookman, Akor
Adams and Victor
Osimhen, they have an attack the envy of all.
All four of Nigeria’s goals against Mozambique were both scored
and assisted by two of those players; Lookman’s four assists in
total is the most at the tournament, and his country now have a 12%
chance of winning this edition of AFCON, according to the
supercomputer, up from 7.3% before the tournament.
Egypt have not been as convincing as many
expected but are in the quarters nonetheless. The Pharaohs came
through the group stage after a late Mohamed
Salah winner against Zimbabwe, having overcome South Africa 1-0
despite having 10 men for half the game. They were also
surprisingly taken to extra-time by Benin in the last 16 but
eventually ran out 3-1 victors in Agadir.
Egypt started the tournament as second favourites (12.4%), and
while their percentage chances haven’t dropped much (now 11.8%),
that only makes them fifth favourites with the supercomputer.
Côte d’Ivoire also have plenty of talent at
their disposal, which was on show in their 3-0 win over Burkina
Faso in the last 16. Goals from young prospects Amad
Diallo, Yan
Diomande and Bazoumana
Touré saw them through, and like Nigeria, Emerse Faé’s men
will hope their impressive attack can take them even further.
In addition, captain Franck Kessié has been the most creative
player in open play in Morocco, creating more chances (11) than
anyone else. He led Côte d’Ivoire to retain their title in 10.7% of
the latest sims.
Cameroon (ninth) were the only remaining team
who didn’t feature in the top eight favourites at the start of the
tournament, but they’re up to seventh now ahead of their
quarter-final against hosts Morocco.
Bryan
Mbeumo is yet to score from six shots at AFCON 2025, with
Christian Kofane (two goals) –
who we earmarked as one to watch before the tournament – the
only Cameroon player to have found the net more than once. They won
the whole thing in 6.5% of simulations.
The outsiders are now Mali, possibly because
they have reached the last eight without actually winning a game.
They drew all three of their group matches and needed a penalty
shootout to get past Tunisia in the last 16. They also face an
in-form Senegal in the quarters.
Lassine Sinayoko’s injury-time equaliser against Tunisia kept
them in the competition, and he may need to add to his three goals
in the tournament if Mali are to make it any further. They went all
the way in 5.2% of sims.
What does the Opta supercomputer say about each quarter-final
specifically, though? Let’s find out.
Mali vs
Senegal
This will be just the second ever meeting between Mali and
Senegal at the Africa Cup of Nations, with the only previous
encounter (a 1-1 draw) coming in the 2004 group stage.
While Mali have struggled to win games at this AFCON, they are
also hard to beat. Since the 2021 edition, Mali have lost just one
match at the AFCON (W4 D8), though only Senegal (W10 D5 L0) have
lost fewer games at the tournament in that time.
The supercomputer makes Senegal favourites to win in 90 minutes,
doing so in 51.2% of simulations, while Mali won in 25.3%. The game
went to extra-time in 23.5%, with Senegal given an overall 63.2%
chance of progressing.
Cameroon
vs Morocco
Cameroon are unbeaten against Morocco at the Africa Cup of
Nations (W2 D1), though this will be their first meeting in the
competition since a 1-0 victory in the 1992 group stage.
Morocco have only played more matches against Tunisia without
winning at the AFCON (P4 D2 L2) than their three against Cameroon.
The only previous game between these two nations in the knockout
stages was in the 1988 semi-finals, with Cameroon winning 1-0.
However, the hosts are the favourites to win inside 90 minutes
(44.7%) here, though Cameroon also have a decent chance of victory
in normal time (30.0%). The game went to extra-time in more than a
quarter of sims (25.3%), with Morocco handed a 66.2% chance of
heading through to the semis overall, the highest percentage of any
team at the competition.
Algeria
vs Nigeria
These two nations meet for the 10th time at the Africa Cup of
Nations. Algeria have the edge (four wins to three) across their
previous nine games (D2), including winning their most recent clash
2-1 in the 2019 semi-finals.
Algeria have only progressed from two of their previous six
AFCON quarter-finals, though those came in their last three such
games, eliminating Côte d’Ivoire both in 2010 (3-2) and 2019 (won
4-3 on penalties, after a 1-1 draw).
Algeria are marginal favourites to advance here (51.3%), but
it’s almost a toss of a coin. They won inside 90 minutes in 38.5%
of sims, compared to Nigeria’s 34.5%, with the game going to
extra-time in the remaining 27.0%.
Egypt vs
Côte d’Ivoire
This will be the 12th meeting at the Africa Cup of Nations
between Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire, the most played fixture in the
history of the competition. The Pharaohs only lost one of their
previous 11 meetings (W7 D3).
Egypt have progressed from all five knockout matches (incl.
third-place play-off) against Côte d’Ivoire at the AFCON (W2 D3),
with three of their wins coming via penalty shootouts, including
the most recent in a January 2022 round-of-16 tie (0-0, won 5-4 on
penalties).
They went to extra-time again in 27.1% of these simulations,
with Egypt winning inside 90 minutes in 38.1% and Côte d’Ivoire in
34.7%. Egypt have an overall 50.6% likelihood of making the semis,
so also another one almost too close to call.
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