The increase shows up quietly in the data, without the kind of inflection that demands immediate explanation.
Between July and October last year, Kenya’s local electricity generation rose to about 4,547 gigawatt hours, roughly five percent higher than the same period in 2024. It was the first increase recorded since 2022, ending a stretch of stagnation that had coincided with rising demand and repeated pressure on the grid during evening peaks.
The growth came unevenly. Geothermal and solar edged upward. Hydro and wind did not.
For planners at Kenya Power, the change mattered because it moved in the right direction, even if it did not change daily operating assumptions.
Counting peaks
Kenya recorded six peak demand events in 2025 alone, moments when electricity use rose high enough to force defensive measures across the system. These peaks tend to arrive in the evening, when households return, businesses remain open, and renewable output thins.
During those hours, the grid leans on imports from Ethiopia and Uganda to prevent frequency drops and wider outages. Imports now account for about 10 percent of electricity on the national grid, a share that has grown steadily over the years.
Each peak leaves behind a trace. Control room logs. Load curves. Internal memos about what held and what came close.
Steam holds
Geothermal output rose eight percent in the July to October window, reaching just over 2,068 gigawatt hours compared with about 1,904 gigawatt hours a year earlier. It remains the most dependable source of local generation, particularly as rainfall patterns have become less predictable.
Geothermal is also among the cheaper sources available to Kenya Power, behind only hydro and imported electricity. That combination of cost and reliability has turned it into the system’s de facto baseload.
Drilling schedules, reinjection plans, maintenance cycles.
None of these respond quickly to demand spikes.
What slipped
Hydropower output fell five percent in the same period, dropping to about 1,166 gigawatt hours. Reservoir management has grown more cautious, shaped by rainfall uncertainty and competing water needs beyond power generation.
Wind plants produced about 645 gigawatt hours, down from roughly 666 gigawatt hours the year before. The decline was not dramatic, but it reinforced the system’s exposure to variability. Wind generation rose slightly in some installations and fell in others, leaving the aggregate lower.
Solar rose modestly. Its contribution remained limited by timing.
Dispatch reality
Grid operations have become an exercise in constant adjustment. Daytime solar helps reduce load on thermal plants, then disappears before the evening surge. Wind output fluctuates without regard for consumption patterns. Hydro output is rationed over seasons rather than hours.
A minor imbalance. A delayed response. A call to a regional counterpart.
Imports fill gaps, but they come with their own constraints.
The long pause
A freeze on new power purchase agreements, in place from 2018 until late 2025, has shaped much of this landscape. With no new plants allowed onto the grid, growth in local generation depended entirely on existing facilities. Uprates, efficiency gains, and better dispatch carried the burden.
The freeze limited how quickly Kenya Power could respond to rising demand, even as new connections and consumption continued to climb.
By the time the moratorium was lifted, the system had already adapted to operating close to its margins.
Shares and costs
Between July and October, geothermal accounted for about 46 percent of locally generated electricity. Hydro followed at roughly 26 percent. Wind contributed around 14 percent. The remainder came from solar and thermal plants.
Clean sources dominate the mix on paper. In practice, their availability does not always align with peak demand, forcing continued reliance on imports and thermal generation during critical hours.
Thermal plants remain expensive. They also remain necessary.
Pressure without release
The rise in local generation eased pressure on Kenya Power, but only slightly. Demand growth continues to outpace supply additions, and imports remain an essential buffer during peak periods.
Electricity rationing has not disappeared. It has become targeted, intermittent, and operational rather than formal.
The grid holds, but it does so narrowly, balancing steam, water, wind, sun, and cross-border flows in real time.
Whether incremental gains from existing plants can continue to offset rising consumption, or whether the system will face sharper trade-offs before new capacity arrives, remains unresolved at the operational level.
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