Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
Getahun Tafesse
Hello my fellow Ethiopians – Congratulations!
In our lifetime Ethiopia is going to change from a poor developing country to a middle income country and our children are likely to live in a developed prosperous country.
Development finally is about to manifest in Ethiopia. It neither came from outside nor from internal government policies. The country is about to prosper not because but despite the Prosperity Party that is ruling the country.
The long awaited, the persistently sought development finally is knocking at Ethiopia’s door – not from outside but from inside. It is in fact forcing itself out like a pupa hatching into a butterfly. The force is so strong no power can contain or prevent it. How come?
On the ground, gradual changes that were happening for a long period have reached critical mass necessitating and unleashing all wide development. The leading engine that drives all changes is the change in peoples’ mind set, which itself is driven by population and consequently livelihood pressures. The objective conditions on the ground have matured necessitating modern ways of life or development. The key driving force is change in the Mind Set of a significant proportion of the people.
Relentless efforts have been made in the past to motivate people to work hard and change their life circumstances. However, the human mind is the most difficult entity to change from external pressure and past efforts in workshops/ seminars, training, emotional appeals, campaigns, etc. could not bring such a change in critical mass scale. The desired changes are happening now due to right objective conditions, especially population and livelihood pressures that are forcing people to change on their own from real life experiences.
Some of the ways the change in the mindset of Ethiopia’s people are reflected include: i) strong drive to change one’s lifestyle for the better both in urban and rural settings (this comes with enlightened knowledge that current livelihood is not a predetermined fate but at the hand of one’s own determination to bring change); ii) embracing collectivism (people have started living together (in apartments/ real estates), investing together (growing share companies, cluster farming, etc.); discussing/ planning together, appreciating each other and opening to each other; iv) cooperation instead of individualism seen, for example, among students who study together and help each other out; among co-workers who growingly support each other and businesses that are increasingly engaging in mutually benefiting arrangements. These changes are unleashing the dynamic force that is propelling Ethiopia’s economy.
The on-ground population pressure and livelihood challenges are also driving changes that are paving the way to national unity as people everywhere are undergoing, albeit to a different degree, these mindset changes thereby growingly sharing similar values and attitudes. Politician extremists or ethnic radicals are rapidly losing their ground or constituencies and will eventually be left hanging in thin air without a support base. Nation state building is on the air as national unity is emerging driven by shared values that are transcending ethnic boundaries. This is not a government making nor the achievement of citizenship promoting parties but rather a result of natural processes.
Some practical changes brought through the changing peoples’ mindset include: i) modern forms of business set up and running (it is not uncommon now to see well organized businesses in different sectors that use modern office setup and up to date technologies and staff working in a team and professionally organized manner); ii) number and type of businesses increasing rapidly due to sheer size of young population and growing business orientation (for example university students increasingly engaged in private businesses even before graduation); iii) some private businesses have grown in capacity and have become global exporting services and products globally; iv) government revenue (from taxes and public services including telecom, electricity, etc. ) growing rapidly from millions to billions and now to trillions; v) public and private services increasingly using modern technologies and systems; vi) quality of day to day food and beverage services undergoing fundamental improvements (for example, widespread cozy cafes and restaurants which are well designed and neatly organized); etc.
The above are the positive and emerging trends in Ethiopia. This is not to deny that ethnic identity championing the Constitution has led to fragmentation creating a whole generation of young people that have little knowledge about Ethiopia’s history as one nation and probably have little sentiment about national identity. The most recent and emerging trend seems, however, people increasingly realizing the most important issues are freedom, democracy, human right, equal opportunity, property protection, etc. with consequent measures for a government in terms of its capacity to promote these rather than sharing ethnic identity with the ruling group. Soon Ethiopian people will start to vote, in majority, for a party based on principles rather than ethnic affiliation.
People are passing through on-ground real life experiences facing bottlenecks in travel, business, employment and other opportunities which are constrained from ethnic demarcation, rivalry conflicts, etc; which are leading to growing appreciation for freedom of travel, business and other opportunities to realize one’s potential. An important trend forging national unity is also the fact that women from confined or intact ethnic communities are growingly transcending ethnic boundaries in love affairs and marriage, strengthening bondage among Ethiopian society.
A few government policies or measures may have capitalized or passively responded to the objective dynamics on the ground such as corridor development; natural gas production, sheger/ gebeta le hager initiatives, etc. In reality, the government does not seem to have the knowledge nor the capacity to fully grasp the dynamics of the on-going development dynamics in the country. The hatching development is not currently well managed. The transition of Ethiopia from traditional to a modern country is happening as a natural process and the government needs only take measures to guide its smooth transition, safeguard valuable cultural assets, capitalize on emerging opportunities (ex., tremendous growth in government revenue) and ensure all sections of the society participate and benefit from this process. The potentials and opportunities emerging are so great and tremendous, there is no reason to engage in rivalry and conflicts that prolong unnecessarily the misery and sufferings of the current generation.
Some CEOs marvel at their public enterprise achievement as their own personal achievement. Whereas there is no doubt their personal commitment and strength might have contributed; the rapid growth however is mainly driven by objective conditions (mainly sheer size of rapidly growing users and new technologies). Similarly, the government might claim economy-wide changes and developments as its own achievement. For a close observer, it is not difficult to witness even the government being perplexed about what is going in Ethiopia’s economy – minding statements that come from top government official(s) such as “miracle is happening in Ethiopia”; “things are moving faster even more than what we (in government) planned”, “economists need to scrutinize what is happening in Ethiopia’s economy and enlighten us on what is going on”, etc.
Ethiopia marches at its own pace and in its long journey of life, we a given generation come and go in what would be a few minutes of Ethiopia’s life, measured in terms of a human person’s life span. Individuals do not control Ethiopia’s fate. Those that are in power can expedite or slow down the natural course but cannot change Ethiopia’s naturally destined history, which is governed by objective conditions on the ground. Ethiopia currently is on the trajectory of a transformative process and destined for prosperity.
I know many of you would say “what are you talking about? Is not Ethiopia going down the drain with conflicts ravaging and destroying productive capacity; peoples’ movement restricted and so on and so on; well in my humble opinion, this is the outward face of Ethiopia that is masking fundamental changes on-going at the heart and inner bodies of Ethiopia.
The main issue is how to handle and guide this development dynamics that comes naturally. In more academic terms, development comes as a natural process governed by objective conditions on the ground. Policies matter in so far as facilitating or retarding this natural process without having capacity to change the natural course of development history. Development likely comes as a disruptive phenomenon and prone to be, in some cases, violent and conflict driving. Moreover, development comes on its own and at its own pace. No academic nor government force can nor will enforce development to happen.
Development comes and goes on its own. Development is probably conceived in many African countries and will soon or could already be hatching (like in Rwanda, Ghana, etc.). Development is probably abandoning US and European countries as a natural cycle of history. Trump is fighting a battle that is probably already lost. America is unlikely to be great again and US and European countries are likely to be in a declining trajectory. Whereas Asia was already Africa will soon be on a rapidly rising trajectory with the possibility of surpassing Asia’s growth. Ethiopia is at the forefront of this development dynamics in the Africa region.
There is, of course, a little bit of a cross road in Ethiopia’s natural path. The unbearable suffering our large section of the society is currently going through should not also be undermined. There is a possibility things might go out of control and the country disintegrating into a lawless ungoverned state. My belief is there is a real possibility this could happen if current states of affairs continue but that even if this happens it will be for a short period before the country and people rebounding for national unity and nation state building. So, the path to prosperity remains intact with possible short while distraction. This is not after all for you and/ or me to change and nobody, even countries like Egypt, can do nothing about this. Historically adversary countries should be prepared to embrace a powerful and prosperous Ethiopia from which they will gain through positive cooperation and abandoning their historical sabotaging approach. Ethiopia will soon become a strong country that will take reciprocal and punitive measures instead of passive tolerance which was pursued for too long in the past.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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