Ed DoveJan 14, 2026, 08:31 AM
CloseEd Dove is a writer and scout who has a deep and enduring passion for African sport, politics and literature. Instagram: @EddyDove22, Facebook: @EddyDoveAfrica
After four compelling quarterfinals, the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations has served up two blockbuster semifinals, with four genuine title contenders still in the running for continental glory as we reach the business end of the AFCON.
Senegal and Egypt square off in Tangier in Wednesday’s earlier kickoff, in a match that is about so much more than a reunion between Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah, before hosts Morocco entertain a Nigeria side who have looked rampant during the Nations Cup so far and will fancy their chances of a fourth title.
Here’s Ed Dove’s definitive AFCON semifinal preview and predictions ahead of two utterly mouthwatering ties:
Senegal vs Egypt
Tangier, January 14: 7 pm CAT/ 5 pm BST/ 10.30 pm IST
Inevitably, this match has been billed as a face-off between former Liverpool teammates Salah and Mane — two of Africa’s greatest ever — and it’s easy to see why.
Back in 2021, when the two met in the final, Mane scored the decisive penalty in the shootout as his then-teammate watched on from the halfway line, and with both now 33, this could feasibly be the final meeting between the pair. That 2021 AFCON win had ensured Mane wrote a definitive continental chapter in his career – ensuring a first ever African title for Senegal and establishing him as his country’s greatest ever player in the process – while Salah still waits for that legacy-defining triumph with the Pharaohs.
Mohamed Salah has won almost everything there is to win at club level, but hasn’t won AFCON with Egypt. Visionhaus/Getty Images
That quest been one of the key subplots in a compelling Nations Cup, as the veteran – entering the tournament off the back of strained relations with his Premier League employers – has appeared at times to be on a one-man mission to drag the unimpressive Pharaohs through.
He hasn’t dominated matches, but he’s been present in critical moments, scoring winners against Zimbabwe, South Africa and Ivory Coast, while also adding Egypt’s third to kill off Benin‘s hopes of a comeback in the Last 16. Only Morocco’s Brahim Díaz has more goals at the tournament, although it’s his forward partner Omar Marmoush who has looked more consistently like Egypt’s key threat, with only two players in the tournament averaging more successful take-ons per match.
Together, the duo ensure the Pharaohs must be taken seriously, although behind them, they remain a workman-like operation, who were stodgy and uninventive during a turgid group campaign with head coach Hossam Hassan largely sticking to the basics. Hassan’s decision to restore the mercurial Emam Ashour to the starting lineup against Ivory Coast – following such a poor performance as a starter in the opener against Zimbabwe – was rewarded with two assists, and the Al-Ahly playmaker could again have a key role to play.
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Nonetheless, Senegal remain the favourites, with a richer starting XI, a deeper squad and plenty of players who have extensive experience of navigating this kind of fixture. Mane, like Salah, has stepped up, albeit more subtly, with three assists so far (behind only Ademola Lookman) while Pape Thiaw has managed to build a menacing attacking unit with the likes of Nicolas Jackson, Ismaïla Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye.
There are concerns about their tendency to start games sluggishly – they looked poor against Sudan before snapping into life after half an hour – while a defensive unit containing Kalidou Koulibaly and Édouard Mendy can look vulnerable. But look out for Krépin Diatta, a winger converted to a fullback: he’s served a reminder of the potency and dynamism of Senegal’s fullback contributors in the 2021 win.
Expect a buoyant pro-Senegal atmosphere in Tanger, a city they’ve made their own during this tournament, with considerable Moroccan fans expected to turn up to add their weight behind the West Africans.
Ed Dove’s Prediction: Senegal to advance
Nigeria vs Morocco
January 14, Rabat: 10 pm CAT/ 8 pm BST/1.30 am IST (Jan 15)
It’s something of a shame that one of these two won’t be able to be present in Sunday’s title decider. Over the last couple of weeks, Nigeria have arguably replaced Morocco as title favourites, though, by being the most convincing team at this tournament.
After taking time to find their range against Tanzania in the opener, they’ve steadily gathered momentum, with Eric Chelle’s diamond formation and the integration of the selfless Akor Adams making Nigeria the most potent team at the Nations Cup. They have taken more shots, have the highest xG, and have scored the most goals with 14; indeed, this is the top scoring Super Eagles team in AFCON history, and they still have two more matches to play, with former African Footballers of the Year Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman enjoying life in tandem.
Nobody puts Ademola in the corner… Lookman and Osimhen celebrate Nigeria’s third goal against Mozambique. SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP via Getty Images
Pre-tournament concerns about a jittery defence have largely been assuaged by back-to-back clean sheets in the knockouts, and while Algeria were decidedly poor in that hotly anticipated quarterfinal, Nigeria deserve immense credit for neutralising them so effectively. Failure to qualify for the World Cup has given Nigeria an edge, with the surly Chelle succeeding in positively channeling this misstep into quiet determination to succeed here.
Morocco, by contrast, have only lived up to their pre-AFCON billing in fleeting moments, with mood and enthusiasm among home supporters fluctuating as a result.
They’ve clearly been impacted by injuries — while Achraf Hakimi continues his comeback from a severe ankle sprain, Romain Saïss picked up a muscle injury in the opener, Sofyan Amrabat has been in and out of the side, while Azzedine Ounahi (described by his coach as the side’s metronome) is out of the tournament after he got a calf injury ahead of the last 16 meeting with Tanzania.
Some solace for the hosts comes in the form of a suspension to Nigeria captain Wilfred Ndidi – due to a second caution picked up needlessly as he was about to be substituted against Algeria – and while the likes of Frank Onyeka or Raphael Onyedika could step into the skipper’s shoes, neither could truly replace his influence at the base of the midfield.
“Algeria were a big team with strengths and weaknesses, and Morocco is the same,” Chelle said on Tuesday, “but they are not the same team, they are different, so we have to work specifically for Morocco, find the right spaces, and do everything to win.”
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Colin Udoh: This is the best Nigeria team I’ve seen!
Colin Udoh reacts to Nigerian’s excellent display vs. Algeria in the quarterfinals of AFCON.
Morocco head coach Walid Regragui can also feel confident that his attacking line can hurt Nigeria and truly test Stanley Nwabali and his defensive unit. Diaz, with a goal in every match so far, has been the tournament’s outstanding individual and is hitting top form at just the right time, while Ayoub El Kaabi‘s unpredictable, bullish, acrobatic style up top also has the capacity to trouble Nigeria.
On paper, home support should give the hosts a massive edge, but supporters have not universally, unconditionally thrown their weight behind the Atlas Lions, and should they start slowly, or should Nigeria score first, the mood may well change.
This will be a real test for the emotional Regragui and his team; while they’ve negotiated major high-pressure situations before, this feels different. “When you are coach of the Moroccan national team, every result brings criticism,” Regragui said. “I have only lost four times in three and a half years, and I put my country in the semifinals of the World Cup and the AFCON. In reality, no one should be talking, but in Morocco, it’s different, and you have to accept it.”
Given the investment, given the expectation, given the weighty sense of destiny, if things start ticking for the Super Eagles in Rabat, chances of a Moroccan implosion — both on the pitch and in the terraces — must be high.
Ed Dove’s Prediction: Nigeria to advance