Uganda heads into a tense presidential election as President Yoweri Museveni seeks to extend his nearly four-decade rule into a fifth decade. Voting takes place under heavy security and nationwide internet restrictions following a campaign marked by violence, arrests, and accusations of repression.
At 81, Museveni is widely expected to defeat his main challenger, opposition figure and pop star Bobi Wine. Yet the election represents a critical test of the president’s political durability and his ability to prevent unrest similar to that witnessed in neighbouring Tanzania and Kenya in recent years.
The Contenders and the Campaign
Museveni has campaigned on a platform of “protecting the gains,” presenting himself as the guarantor of stability, peace, and economic progress. He has promised to steer Uganda toward middle-income status, bolstered by expectations of an economic boost from the start of oil production later this year.
His chief rival, Bobi Wine popularly known as the “Ghetto President” has mobilised Uganda’s youthful population, more than 70% of whom are under 30. Wine has framed the election as a struggle against authoritarianism, appealing to voters frustrated by unemployment, inflation, and limited economic opportunity.
Security Clampdown and Human Rights Concerns
The campaign period has been marred by widespread repression. Security forces have repeatedly fired on opposition rallies, killing at least one person and arresting hundreds of Wine’s supporters. Authorities have defended these actions as necessary to contain disorder.
In the days leading up to the vote, the military was deployed across Kampala, while internet and mobile services were restricted nationwide to prevent what officials described as the spread of misinformation. The U.N. Human Rights Office has warned that the elections are taking place amid “widespread repression and intimidation,” raising concerns about the credibility of the process.
Museveni and Western Strategic Interests
Since taking power in 1986, Museveni has entrenched his authority by amending the constitution to remove presidential term and age limits. His firm grip over state institutions has led analysts to conclude that a surprise electoral upset is highly unlikely.
Despite persistent allegations of human rights abuses and flawed elections, Museveni has remained a key Western partner. Uganda has played a strategic role in regional security, deploying troops to Somalia and hosting millions of refugees. Economic prospects have further strengthened Museveni’s international standing, with oil production led by France’s TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC expected to drive rapid growth.
Muted International Scrutiny
Unlike in 2021 when the United States denounced Museveni’s victory as neither free nor fair strong criticism from Washington appears unlikely this time. U.S. diplomats were instructed last year not to publicly comment on the integrity of foreign elections, reducing external pressure on Kampala despite renewed reports of abuses.
Succession in Focus
Beyond the immediate vote, the election has sharpened attention on presidential succession. Museveni is widely believed to favour his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the current military chief, though he has denied grooming him as heir.
Kainerugaba has openly expressed presidential ambitions and is known for incendiary social media posts, including threats against opposition figures. However, analysts note that his presumed succession is contested within the ruling party, raising the risk of elite fragmentation once Museveni exits the scene.
Analysis
While Museveni is likely to secure another term, the election underscores a deeper structural dilemma: Uganda’s political stability is increasingly tied to the longevity of one man. Each extension of Museveni’s rule delays an inevitable leadership transition, amplifying uncertainty rather than resolving it.
In the short term, repression and control may contain unrest. In the longer term, unresolved succession questions combined with a youthful, economically strained population pose a significant risk to Uganda’s post-Museveni future. Stability, in this context, may be less a permanent condition than a carefully managed pause.
With information from Reuters.