Former President Uhuru Kenyatta and President William Ruto/PCS
The late Isiolo South Member of Parliament, Tubi Bidu Mohamed/FILE
A fresh battle is looming between President William Ruto and his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, in the Isiolo South MP by-election.
The election battle, a local succession contest, is evolving into a high-stakes proxy war for political influence in northern Kenya.
Children of the late MP Mohamed Tubi, who passed away last November, are raring to fight it out to replace him in the February 26 by-election.
The sibling rivalry, however, has been decisively co-opted by the country’s dominant political forces, with each offspring becoming a flag-bearer for their respective patron.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni on Wednesday confirmed to the Star that the party would give Bina Mohamed the certificate.
“A by-election is an opportunity to articulate issues as a party. We are in this for the long haul. We cherish being on the platforms and are looking forward to peaceful campaigns,” he said.\
Bina herself publicly declared her intention to contest in the upcoming by-election. Her father, who was elected in 2022, ran on a Jubilee Party ticket.
Kioni’s statement underscores Jubilee’s determination to remain a relevant political vehicle for the former President, despite its significant depletion in the 2022 elections.
For Uhuru’s party, retaining the Isiolo South MP seat is a matter of preserving a foothold and demonstrating that the former President’s influence lives on despite his retirement from office.
This is playing out particularly among some pastoralist communities and his support base, Mt Kenya, where Jubilee has been activating its grassroots networks for the 2027 run.
Ruto’s team seeks to turn Jubilee’s table by presenting the politician’s son, to run through the United Democratic Alliance party.
Tubi Mohamed has already received strong backing for the seat.
On Tuesday, UDA issued him a nomination certificate, positioning him as a frontrunner.
The full machinery of the ruling party is now expected to deploy behind Tubi, with potential campaign support from senior government figures.
In November, Isiolo elders unanimously endorsed him, a critical step in a region where clan endorsements carry substantial weight.
The events frame the contest as a choice between alignment with the development-focused national government versus an opposition party in decline.
Ruto has employed a strategy aiming to absorb leaders from rival camps and steadily expand UDA’s national footprint, constituency by constituency.
In the Mbeere North by-election, UDA dislodged the Democratic Party from its only seat in the National Assembly.
The President plucked Geoffrey Ruku and made him CS for Public Service, staging the vote his party won last November.
“Winning a seat traditionally held by Jubilee in a region with complex clan and ethnic calculus would be a significant symbolic victory for the President,” political analyst Javas Bigambo said.
Apart from the Isiolo South MP seat, a fresh battle is unfolding between the ruling UDA party and the opposition.
Whereas the Rigathi Gachagua-led Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has declared no intentions to field a candidate, its compatriots in the united opposition are raring for the fight.
DCP spokesperson Ken Njohi said, “DCP shall not be fielding candidates in February by-elections in Isiolo South and Mbeere North (Muminji & Evurore wards)….”
“Jubilee, which claims to be a Mũlima (Mount Kenya) party, should take advantage and show us what they have,” he said on his social media pages on Wednesday.
Njohi’s jab highlights the ongoing realignment and tensions within the opposition space.
The declaration came in the wake of the UDA party handing over certificates to its flag bearers who will contest the Evurore, Muminji and West Kabras wards by-elections.
The MCA nominees are Elphas Shalakha, Peterson Njiri, and Duncan Nyaga for Malava’s West Kabras and Mbeere North’s Muminji and Evurore wards, respectively.
The seats fell vacant after the occupants, Duncan Mbui of Evurore and Newton Karishi of Muminji, relinquished their seats to vie in the parliamentary race, but lost to UDA’s Leonard Wamuthende.
The West Kabras ward seat was once occupied by David Ndakwa, who has since been elected to the MP seat following the November 2025 by-election.
UDA secretary general Hassan Omar assured the candidates of the party’s full support, amid calls for humility in their campaigns to deliver victory to the party at the mini-polls.
Pundits posit that the simultaneous by-elections offer UDA a chance to further consolidate its grip at the grassroots level in different regions, testing its organisational strength.
The opposition will field joint candidates in each ward, with the DP taking Evurore ward and the Devolution Empowerment Party trying its hand in Muminji ward.
The united opposition’s strategy for the Isiolo South MP seat remains unclear, largely because Jubilee already claims the space with Bina’s candidacy.
This lack of a single, cohesive opposition front against UDA in the parliamentary race may ultimately benefit the ruling party’s candidate, Tubi.
Even so, Bina says she is no pushover, citing deep family connections to Isiolo South as her motivation.
In a statement that has sparked discussions across the constituency, she emphasised her roots and the respect her family commands among locals.
“I am a proud daughter of Mohamed Tubi and I also deserve to be elected as a Member of Parliament for Isiolo South,” she said.
“The people of Isiolo South know my family as a respected one that has lived with their mothers all this time after my father divorced my mother. Our mother took charge and raised us like children of a dynasty family.”
Her announcement comes amid reported family disagreements over succession and recognition of different branches of the late MP’s family.
Sources close to the family suggest tensions have arisen regarding which relatives should carry forward Mohamed’s political legacy.
Political observers in the North note that family dynamics often play a significant role in local elections, especially in pastoralist communities where clan consensus and legacy matter deeply.
As the campaign season begins, the Isiolo South by-election is set to mirror the current political landscape, especially in the Northeastern region.