Kenya’s sugar production declined sharply in the first 11 months of 2025, dealing a setback to ongoing efforts to revive the sector, which continues to face supply disruptions, policy uncertainty and deep-rooted structural challenges, reports Daily Nation.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows domestic sugar output fell by 27.2 per cent to 551,805 tonnes between January and November 2025, compared with 758,302 tonnes produced during the same period in 2024. The drop erased gains recorded during a brief recovery phase last year.
The decline has cast doubt on President William Ruto’s goal of turning Kenya into a net sugar exporter by 2027. The situation has been made more difficult by rising regional competition after Kenya exited sugar import safeguards under the Comesa trade bloc earlier this month.
Lower sugar output followed a similar fall in sugarcane supply. Cane deliveries to factories dropped by 27.1 per cent to 6.3 million tonnes during the first 11 months of 2025, down from 8.7 million tonnes over the same period a year earlier.
This marked a reversal from 2024, when good weather and fertiliser subsidies boosted cane production across major growing areas in western Kenya, leading to excess supply.
Cane deliveries began to weaken in April last year, when factories received 398,908 tonnes, compared with 715,528 tonnes in March. The decline coincided with disruptions linked to the leasing of State-owned sugar mills to private operators.
The fall in cane supply reduced factory output. Sugar production dropped to 36,194 tonnes in April from 66,595 tonnes in March, before falling further to 32,760 tonnes in May, the lowest monthly level in nearly two years.
The supply disruptions occurred during a difficult transition as four public sugar mills — Nzoia, Chemelil, Muhoroni and Sony — were handed over to private investors under lease arrangements.
The leasing process faced resistance from workers and farmers, prompted parliamentary scrutiny and raised concerns about payment delays, transparency and the continuity of cane development programmes.
The latest KNBS figures underline the fragile position of Kenya’s sugar industry, which has relied on policy protection for more than two decades while struggling with high production costs and ageing infrastructure.
Under the Comesa sugar safeguard system, Kenya had been allowed to import up to 350,000 tonnes of sugar each year to cover domestic shortfalls.
With the safeguards now lifted, local producers are expected to face stronger competition from more efficient sugar exporters within the Comesa region, including Egypt, Mauritius and Zambia.
