Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

A drone attack reached Egypt’s Mediterranean gas infrastructure for the first time in the war. At least two drones struck the US-owned Energos Winter floating storage and regasification unit and a second gas-processing vessel at Damietta port on Wednesday, setting both ships on fire and forcing them offshore. No casualties were reported, and the port authority says operations have resumed. Egyptian military investigators are examining how the drones penetrated several layers of air defence around one of the country’s most heavily guarded energy sites. Egyptian officials have opened direct contacts with Tehran to determine who launched the drones. Cairo is unlikely to retaliate militarily. Egypt has rerouted LNG imports through its remaining floating regasification terminals and is relying more heavily on fuel oil and diesel to prevent another round of nationwide power shortages.

Tehran has fired missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan and ships in Hormuz, Iranian strikes have killed a worker in Kuwait, and Jordan says it intercepted five missiles. The United States resumed attacks on Iran after a five-night pause, with President Donald Trump ordering retaliatory strikes on IRGC targets after promising to hit Tehran “very hard.” Saudi and US forces have also attacked Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, prompting Baghdad to call an emergency security meeting and warn against using Iraqi territory to settle regional scores.

A US-Saudi…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

A drone attack reached Egypt’s Mediterranean gas infrastructure for the first time in the war. At least two drones struck the US-owned Energos Winter floating storage and regasification unit and a second gas-processing vessel at Damietta port on Wednesday, setting both ships on fire and forcing them offshore. No casualties were reported, and the port authority says operations have resumed. Egyptian military investigators are examining how the drones penetrated several layers of air defence around one of the country’s most heavily guarded energy sites. Egyptian officials have opened direct contacts with Tehran to determine who launched the drones. Cairo is unlikely to retaliate militarily. Egypt has rerouted LNG imports through its remaining floating regasification terminals and is relying more heavily on fuel oil and diesel to prevent another round of nationwide power shortages.

Tehran has fired missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan and ships in Hormuz, Iranian strikes have killed a worker in Kuwait, and Jordan says it intercepted five missiles. The United States resumed attacks on Iran after a five-night pause, with President Donald Trump ordering retaliatory strikes on IRGC targets after promising to hit Tehran “very hard.” Saudi and US forces have also attacked Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, prompting Baghdad to call an emergency security meeting and warn against using Iraqi territory to settle regional scores.

A US-Saudi consortium is preparing to build a $5B refinery outside Hormuz. MWG Enterprises, Patel Family Office and Saudi Arabia’s AHQ Group have shortlisted three sites for a 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery, deepwater export terminal and petroleum-storage complex, with a final location due by year-end. The consortium spent three years evaluating sites and expects the first phase to enter commercial operation after 2029.

Israeli officials have aggressively publicized Washington’s use of Israeli air bases, with Defence Minister Israel Katz confirming that U.S. aircraft launched strikes from Israeli territory. The disclosures advertise Israel’s role in the campaign as American public support for Israel continues to weaken. They also place Israel alongside the Gulf governments participating in operations against Iran, promoting the image of a regional coalition confronting Tehran rather than another U.S.-Israel military campaign.

The reported Mossad campaign to recruit Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remains unsupported by verifiable evidence. The New York Times account alleges that Israeli intelligence cultivated the former Iranian president from 2024, extracted him from Tehran after the February 28 bombing and considered installing him after the government’s collapse. The case rests on anonymous American and Iranian sources, with no records, recordings or named intelligence officers. Former Israeli intelligence officials have questioned both the tradecraft and the political logic of using Ahmadinejad, and his appearance at Ali Khamenei’s funeral under government escort indicates that Iran’s security apparatus has not treated him as a confirmed Israeli asset.

Iran has rejected Oman’s proposal for joint administration of Hormuz. Tehran continues to demand formal recognition of its authority over the waterway, preserving the bargaining tool that has cut Gulf crude and LNG exports since February.

Pakistan’s regional election in Kashmir has descended into deadly unrest, with the Joint Awami Action Committee claiming more than 30 protesters were killed after security forces opened fire during demonstrations against the vote. Amnesty International has called for an independent investigation into the use of lethal force, while opposition groups accuse Islamabad of using anti-terrorism laws, communications blackouts and the region’s 12 unelected refugee assembly seats to influence the vote.

Russia’s overnight missile strike on Ukraine extended into NATO territory after a Russian cruise missile crossed into Polish airspace and detonated near the village of Tarnawa-Kolonia, prompting the alliance to launch F-16 fighters, an airborne early warning aircraft and an aerial refueling tanker. Similar Russian drone and missile incursions have struck Poland, Romania, Latvia and Estonia over the past several months, turning what were once isolated incidents into a recurring feature of the war. NATO’s eastern members are responding by expanding integrated air defense networks while advancing plans for a permanent “drone wall” along the alliance’s eastern frontier.

Ukrainian drone strikes have now disrupted both Russia’s refining system and Kazakhstan’s primary oil export route. Two foreign-flagged tankers loading Kazakh crude were attacked at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal on Thursday, forcing another suspension of loading operations along the export route that handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. Kazakhstan is now negotiating to process Russian crude at its own refineries.

Deals, Mergers, Acquisitions & Earnings

Shell’s quarterly profit more than doubled to $9.8B as war-driven volatility again proved that the integrated supermajors can offset operational losses with trading profits. Iranian drone attacks cut Shell’s gas production by roughly 30% after damaging its Qatar gas-to-liquids facility, but higher crude and LNG prices, combined with record performance from its global trading business, more than compensated for the lost output. The results strengthen Shell’s argument that expanding North Sea production remains a strategic priority for the UK as Prime Minister Andy Burnham prepares to meet CEO Wael Sawan amid renewed calls for a windfall tax.

QatarEnergy has spent roughly $1 billion purchasing 33 U.S. LNG cargoes this year to continue supplying key Asian customers even after declaring force majeure on its own export contracts following Iranian attacks on its gas infrastructure. The emergency purchases equal roughly one-third of Qatar’s pre-war monthly LNG exports (only 4 spot cargoes were purchased all of last year). At the same time, Qatar has resumed limited LNG transits through Hormuz, suggesting Doha is cautiously restoring exports while relying on U.S. LNG to preserve long-term customer relationships until Ras Laffan capacity can be restored.

Valero’s second-quarter net income climbed to $3.7B from $714M a year earlier as refining operating income rose to $4.5B, renewable diesel swung to a $717M profit and ethanol earnings increased to $318M. The company processed 3 million barrels per day during the quarter and said roughly 5 million barrels per day of global refining capacity remains offline across Russia and the Middle East, leaving light-product inventories about 130 million barrels below seasonal norms. Valero expects third-quarter margins to exceed the second quarter as crude feedstocks move from premiums to discounts, Russian refinery outages deepen and tighter gasoline and diesel markets keep product cracks elevated.

Türkiye is becoming an equity partner in Iraq’s largest upstream redevelopment project after agreeing to acquire a 15% stake in bp’s Kirkuk venture. The transaction places TPAO alongside BP and ConocoPhillips in a project targeting more than 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent from Kirkuk and three adjacent fields. Iraq has spent the past year drawing U.S. and Turkish investment into the same strategic basin, creating a broader commercial constituency around production growth in the country’s north.