Agriculture PS Paul Ronoh flags off the distribution of two million bags of fertiliser under the National Fertiliser Subsidy Programme at the Port of Mombasa /FILE

“I’m right now cooking ugali from maize I grew using government-subsidised fertiliser. The programme works,” says John Cheburet, a farmer in Nakuru and Bungoma counties.

For Cheburet, the value of the subsidy is measured not in government statistics, but in the food on his family’s table and the money saved before a crop even reaches the market.

“At Sh2,500 per 50kg bag, it is far cheaper than commercial fertiliser, which can cost as much as Sh7,000 at the shops,” he said.

Farming, he noted, involves far more than putting seed in the ground.

“You also need seed, fuel, labour, transport, weeding, general crop management, pest and disease control, and post-harvest handling. There are many factors involved before your produce reaches the dinner table or market,” he said.

To access subsidised fertiliser, farmers must be registered, with allocations determined by the declared size of their farms.

“The first time, upon registration, I was allocated four bags, and then got six in the following season,” Cheburet said.

For Bernard Munyao, who grows maize, beans and pigeon peas on eight acres in Kaiti, Makueni county, the subsidy has also made a difference.

“I have used government-subsidised fertiliser since 2022. I normally receive 30 bags for planting and top dressing. My yields have improved greatly over the years,” he said.

In Matungulu, Machakos county, farmer Peter Kioko said the programme changed his fortunes after years of poor harvests because he could not afford fertiliser.

Such accounts sit at the heart of President William Ruto’s Bottom-up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), where agricultural transformation is the first pillar.

Since 2022, the government has distributed 32,193,583 bags of fertiliser, equivalent to slightly more than 1.6 million tonnes of nutrient delivered to Kenyan farms over four seasons.

Government Delivery Unit data shows that, by May 18, 2026, farmers had redeemed 7,163,837 bags of subsidised fertiliser during the 2026 long rains season, representing 87.5 per cent of available stock. The inputs reached 556,889 farmers, alongside 871,333kg of subsidised certified maize seed.

The subsidy has kept the price at Sh2,500 per 50kg bag, a 64 per cent reduction from the pre-subsidy price of Sh7,000.

Since its inception, the programme has reached 3,449,434 households with fertiliser and 4,154,017 with certified seed, against 7,536,909 registered farming households.

The programme now spans 45 counties, 417 subcounties and 1,382 wards. Fertiliser coverage stands at 45.8 per cent of registered farming households, while seed coverage is 55.1 per cent.

But the reach is uneven.

The Rift Valley grain basket, including Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia and Nandi, accounts for much of the redemption. Uasin Gishu alone accounts for 16.4 per cent of fertiliser redeemed and 56 per cent of seed redeemed nationally.

The figures suggest the subsidy is reaching areas where fertiliser use is central to grain production, while arid and semi-arid counties record much lower uptake, reflecting differing cropping patterns.

Female farmers account for 62 per cent of recorded fertiliser beneficiaries, compared with 38 per cent male beneficiaries.

Cumulatively, 32.1 million bags had been distributed by the end of August 2026, generating an estimated Sh156 billion in farmer savings against the pre-subsidy price.

The inputs move through 384 redemption centres, including 103 NCPB depots and 281 last-mile selling points.

GDU director Olando Sitati said the programme’s contribution to cost-of-living relief, food security and farm incomes could be measured directly.

“A 64 per cent cut in the farmer price of fertiliser removes cost from the single largest input line in smallholder maize production,” Sitati said.

He pointed to the 556,889 farmers served during the season and a 70 per cent rise in national maize output between 2022 and 2025 as indicators of progress.

But cheaper fertiliser alone does not complete the agricultural transformation equation.

Tigania West MP John Mutunga, chairman of the National Assembly Agriculture Committee, said quality seeds, water and soil health were critical to production.

“Fertiliser takes care of soil health and when we have good rains and seeds, we will have completed the cycle,” he said.

Farmers, however, continue to face delays in accessing inputs, as well as difficulties with markets and storage.

Cheburet remembers arriving at a depot in Mt Elgon at 4am, only to find seven farmers ahead of him.

“If you arrived at 8am, you would wait the whole day,” he said.

Such delays can have consequences beyond inconvenience. Farmers who fail to receive fertiliser in time may be forced to buy from commercial distributors to avoid losing crops.

President’s adviser on crops and value chains Henry Kinyua said the government identified the cost of fertiliser as a major constraint to productivity and responded with a financial subsidy, logistics network and digital system.

Registration links a farmer’s national ID to acreage and crops, allowing the system to calculate entitlement.

“Every bag is now tied to a name, a parcel of land and a redeeming outlet,” Kinyua said.

The system, he added, has made it harder for subsidised stock to enter commercial channels.

Yet Kinyua acknowledged that distribution volumes are only one measure of success.

“The next measure of success is agronomic rather than logistical,” he said.

The real test, therefore, may not be how many bags the government distributes or how much farmers save, but whether the fertiliser reaches the soil on time, improves yields and translates into better incomes and food security.

For farmers such as Cheburet, the first answer may already be on the dinner table. The bigger question is whether that experience can be replicated across Kenya.